Israel-Saudi Deal, Intel Failure, Ukraine War: Factors That Could Have Led to Gaza Attack

The unprecedented Gaza attack on October 7, which has killed more than 500, points to several factors such as the intelligence failure of the Israeli government, the “so-called” normalisation of Saudi Arabia-Israel ties and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war.

Palestinian militant group Hamas launched thousands of mighty rockets into Israel from Gaza, breached security border at dawn of October 7 during Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah.

The present Gaza attack is being seen as a watershed in the tumultuous history of Israel and the Arab world post the Six-Day War of June 1967, which broke out with Egypt, Syria and Jordan.

Israel defence forces launched pre-emptive air strikes that crippled Egypt and allies, and seized the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt, the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan and the Golan Heights from Syria.

Although the war ended, but the map of Middle-East changed forever, giving rise to geo-political frictions.

There were 11,000 casualties from Egypt, 6,000 from Jordan, and 1,000 for Syria compared to 700 for Israel in the Six-Day War.

Relations with Saudi Arabia, UAE

Israel foreign minister had said last month that he expects the deal with Saudi Arabia to strike soon. “The gaps can be bridged,” Israel’s foreign minister Eli Cohen told Israel’s Army Radio. “I think there is certainly a likelihood that, in the first quarter of 2024, four or five months hence, we will be able to be at a point where the details [of a deal] are finalised,” he added as quoted by Al Jazeera.

It seems that the US-brokered normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia and UAE has not gone well with Russia and Iran, which has supported the Palestinians for the Gaza attack.

Reports in the international media say Tehran is willing to whip up a conflict to prevent Saudi Arabia from clinching a deal with Israel.

Recently, Iran’s leaders, including Ali Khamenei, have said countries normalising ties with Israel would be “taking a big risk”.

Ukraine-Russia War

Israel had given major armoury to Ukraine quietly for the war with Russia as it may not have seen the Gaza attack coming. In fact, reports have suggested that Israel will seek US ammunition to deal with the October 7 Hamas attack.

Early this year, Israel had also promised expanding aid to Ukraine and help rebuild the country.

Intelligence Failure by Israel

Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad is considered one of the world’s most capable in the world, with an array of human intelligence and other technical means. Allies have been wondering why the Israeli government and the defence forces could not see the Gaza attack coming.

News reports point that Palestinian’s military group Hamas and Hezbollah said the current attack is being seen as a warning to the Muslim community seeking to strike peace with Israel. This comes at a time when Israel was seeking to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia, closer to striking a deal.

Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad is absolutely rattled by the Gaza attack and refused to comment even on condition of anonymity, according to intelligence sources.