“Disease X is just an imaginary or hypothetical illness,” top scientists and experts have clarified following widespread circulation of reports about the illness on social media, leading many in the general public to believe it is a new ailment.
The new pandemic has been dubbed as ‘Disease X’ by the World Health Organisation (WHO). However, it caused the general public to mistakenly perceive it as a new post-Covid-19 disease.
Dr Anurag Agrawal, Dean, BioSciences and Health Research, Ashoka University, clarified that Disease X is “an imaginary scenario” of a new pathogen causing a new pandemic that is more severe than previous ones.
“There is no such pathogen immediately and the exercise is for conceptualising a suitable action plan against future threats,” he said.
Explaining the new term, Dr NK Arora draws a comparison between Disease X and an intruder or thief that an average individual imagines infiltrating their residence, leading them to install security cameras and prepare potential weapons.
Arora, head of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI) — an apex panel which takes critical decisions on the use and deployment of Covid-19 vaccines in India — said: “That thief may never enter your house but in preparation, you install CCTV cameras, lock the house, buy a dog, and keep arms ready and much more. Disease X is similar to that imaginary thief which may not come in our lifetime, but preparations are required right now. The community of scientists is getting ready, imagining that potential intruder.”
What triggered concern among people was the cautionary statement from a UK-based expert.
“The next pandemic could take 50 million lives,” said Dame Kate Bingham, who chaired the UK’s Vaccine Taskforce, adding that it might already be on its way and that Covid-19 was not that lethal.
Bingham said Disease X could be “20 times deadlier than Coronavirus”. Speaking to Daily Mail, she said: “The world will have to prepare for mass vaccination drives and deliver the doses in record time… Imagine Disease X is as infectious as measles with the fatality rate of Ebola (67 per cent). Somewhere in the world, it’s replicating, and sooner or later, somebody will start feeling sick.”
Experts Ease Concerns
The country’s top epidemiologist, Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, told News18 that there is a need to tone down the panic or stress related to Disease X, adding that the need to be aware of hypothetical pathogens is much more than ever.
“The risk of transmission from zoonotic diseases is increasing dramatically due to climate change. Forests are being affected due to which the transmission from animals to humans will increase,” he said, explaining that bats are known as reservoirs for about 40 viruses of which only six are known so far, including coronavirus.
Gangakhedkar, the former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), steered the country’s efforts in handling the outbreaks of the Nipah virus in Kerala and Covid-19. He advised that India must intensify its preparations for the ‘One Health’ mission under which surveillance of animals plays an important role. “We also need to strengthen community involvement,” he said, sharing examples from his on-ground assignments and learnings.
Dr Vishal Rao, member of the Genomic Surveillance Committee of Karnataka’s Covid-19 Task Force, shared a detailed roadmap on how India is preparing against Disease X.
“The team at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), in collaboration with Bangalore BioInnovation Centre, Department of Biotechnology, Government of Karnataka, and state department of health under the M-Path programme, has identified 32 potential pathogens,” he said.
In order to monitor these pathogens at the district level and enhance surveillance, the team will collaborate with various state departments, including urban development, rural and panchayat raj, and other agencies.
“The team is developing a multiplexed serology platform, called M-PATHS, designed to identify antibodies against human pathogens that are specific to India. This platform will be developed over the next 24 months,” he said.
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