After Lull, Monsoon Set to Pick Up, Regular Rains Likely By End of June

This year’s Monsoon, which has remained sluggish till till now, is likely to advance from Sunday and bring rains over eastern, and parts of northern India that is currently in the grip of a severe heat wave.

Good and regular rains are likely predicted by the end of June, and the beginning of July, that will lead to above-normal rainfall along India’s west, central and east coast, meteorologists have said.

From June 18 to June 21, conditions will be favorable for the advancement of Monsoon over east and some other parts of India, according to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatara.

The remnant of cyclone Biparjoy will bring rains of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh and some surrounding areas on Sunday, helping the monsoon advance, news agency PTI said.

The monsoon remained lull since May 11 in the absence of any weather system over the Bay of Bengal and due to the effect of the severe cyclonic storm on the southwest monsoon current.

Now Biparjoy’s remnant is likely to move north-eastwards and give rainfall in central and east Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

“After giving heavy rainfall in Rajasthan, the system will lead to rain in central and east UP and Madhya Pradesh from June 20. It will pull the monsoonal winds and help the monsoon advance over east India,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president (meteorology and climate change) at private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said.

Monsoon 2023

This year, the monsoon hit India on June 8 with its onset over Kerala. This was a week later than normal.

According to some meteorologists, the “delayed” and “mild” monsoon was due to the cyclone.

The monsoon has so far covered the entire northeast, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and some parts of Bengal.

Research shows a delay in the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) does not necessarily mean a delay in the monsoon onset over northwest India. However, a delay in the MOK is generally associated with a delay in onset at least over the southern states and Mumbai, PTI said.

India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said.

El Nino, which is the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and dry weather in India.

See rainfall predictions in this year’s Monsoon

Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall.

East, northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall. This will be at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average.

Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered ‘deficient’, between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is ‘below normal’, between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is ‘above normal’ and more than 100 per cent is ‘excess’ precipitation.