The rainfall deficit in the coastal state of Kerala has increased to 26% even as southwest monsoon turns vigorous over adjoining Konkan-Goa. The bountiful monsoon brought heavy rain along the west coast, with Mumbai and Goa under red alert after the highest daily rainfall this season.
The monsoon has largely fared well over the peninsular India so far, with 13% excess rain till July 9. The rain has been in surplus over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh as well as Telangana, except Kerala, which remains under deficit. “At this point, there is no reason to worry. July is typically the rainiest month, and we are just a week into it. The rainfall is expected to pick up over the next week. Moreover, the large-scale weather phenomena, which influence the monsoon will become favorable soon, so that will also improve the rainfall significantly,” said senior scientist Neetha K Gopal from MeT Centre at Thiruvananthapuram.
The coastal state is bracing for an above-normal monsoon this year as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), especially considering the history of devastating floods in recent years. “We are carefully monitoring the situation. Usually, if it rains well in July, the soil becomes saturated and water reservoirs become full, so excess rain in August-September leads to more run-off that can trigger floods,” she added.
ACTIVE MONSOON LEADS TO 2% EXCESS RAIN OVER INDIA
Following a sub-par June, the southwest monsoon has picked up steam over the country, after covering it earlier than usual by July 2. The total rainfall over India is at least 2% above normal at present. The latest forecast shows the offshore trough (a weather system) at mean sea level continues to persist along the Maharashtra-north Kerala coasts, which will continue to bring rains over the west coast. Panaji (Goa) recorded nearly 360 mm rain on Monday and Santacruz (Mumbai) saw 270 mm — the highest daily rainfall this season. The MeT has already sounded heavy rainfall warnings for Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, as well as Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala and Mahe till July 13.
The monsoon also remains active over Northeastern states, with another spell of extremely heavy rain predicted over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. This may worsen the flood situation in Assam, where rivers are still flowing above-danger levels, putting lives at risk.
INSUFFICIENT RAIN IN FIVE STATES, MAINLY EASTERN
While the west coast has received bountiful rain, the monsoon has so far remained sub-par in some of the eastern states. According to the IMD, five of the total 36 subdivisions – Gangetic West Bengal (-51%), Jharkhand (-47%), Chhattisgarh (-24%), Odisha (-26%) as well as Kerala (-26%) — have the highest rainfall deficit so far.
After a record-breaking summer season, with one of the longest spells of heatwaves, the eastern region also recorded below-normal rain in June after monsoon stalled for nearly 10 days. As of Tuesday, the rainfall deficit has now come down to 5% over the eastern and north-eastern region, and is expected to improve further. The MeT has already issued a heavy rainfall alert for East Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh till July 12.
In its monthly forecast for July, the weather department had predicted below-normal rain for east and south-eastern peninsular India, including East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar as well as Jharkhand.
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