News18 Mega Opinion Poll Predicts Sweep for BJP-led NDA in Jharkhand, INDIA Bloc May Win 2 Seats

Jharkhand may also go the BJP way in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, with the party set to win 12 out of the 14 seats. The opposition INDIA bloc, of which the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is a component, is predicted to get two seats, as per the News18 Mega Opinion Poll.

The poll has predicted a vote share of 58 per cent for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, 32 per cent for the INDIA bloc and 10 per cent for other parties in the fray.

CNN-News18’s survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95 per cent of all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.

Jharkhand will fight 14 seats out of the total 543 Lok Sabha constituencies in summer and 81 assembly seats in October-November. The ruling JMM-Congress alliance was embroiled in political chaos after the arrest and resignation of chief minister Hemant Soren in a money laundering case.

The state with the largest tribal population has five seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes and one is reserved under the Scheduled Caste category.

The 14 constituencies in the state: Rajmahal (ST), Dumka (ST), Godda, Chatra, Kodarma, Giridih, Dhanbad, Ranchi, Jamshedpur, Singhbhum (ST), Khunti (ST), Lohardaga (ST), Palamau (SC), Hazaribagh.

Key Candidates & Rivals

Over the years, the Sudesh Mahto-led All Jharkhand Students Union or AJSU, which is currently part of the NDA alliance, has emerged as a key political player in Jharkhand.

Hemant Soren was replaced by Champai Soren, whose coalition government managed to win the floor test in February.

The BJP has announced the names of Union ministers Arjun Munda (from Khunti ST), Annapurna Devi (Koderma) and former Congress MP Geeta Koda (Singhbhum ST) as its candidates from the state for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

Other candidates include Tala Marandi (Rajmahal), Sunil Soren (Dumka), Nishikant Dubey (Godda), Sanjay Seth (Ranchi), Vidyut Baran Mahato (Jamshedpur), Sameer Oraon (Lohardaga), Vishnu Dayal Ram (Palamu) and Manish Jaiswal (Hazaribagh).

BJP’s Hazaribag MLA Manish Jaiswal replaces sitting party MP Jayant Sinha from Hazaribag Lok Sabha seat. Jaiswal won the Hazaribag assembly constituency in 2019 by defeating Congress’ Ramchandra Prasad.

The BJP fielded its former Jharkhand state president Tala Marandi from Rajmahal (ST) seat, which is currently held by JMM’s Vijay Hansdak.

Union Minister Arjun Munda has been chosen again from Khunti (ST) seat which he had won by a narrow margin of 1445 votes in 2019, defeating Congress’s Kalicharan Munda.

Palamu (SC) seat will be contested by former Director General of Police Vishnu Dayal Ram who won the seat by a margin of 4,77,606 votes during the last polls.

2019 Results

The BJP-AJSU alliance in Jharkhand won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state, while the opposition JMM and the Congress secured one seat each.

The BJP and AJSU party fought the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in alliance for the first time. While the BJP won 11 seats, its ally AJSU won the lone Giridih seat, where its candidate and Jharkhand Water Resources Minister Chandraprakash Choudhary beat JMM’s Jagarnath Mahato by 2,48,347 votes.

Union minister and BJP candidate Jayant Sinha won by a massive margin of 4,78,209 votes to retain the Hazaribagh seat, defeating Congress’ Gopal Prasad Sahu.

The BJP had won 12 of the 14 seats, with a vote share of 40% in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Meanwhile, the JMM bagged just two seats while Congress drew a blank.

About the survey

All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each constituency, three Vidhan Sabha segments were chosen. Five polling booths were selected in each assembly constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Using a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling. A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.

Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geotagged to verify its authenticity.