Opinion | Israel Will Prevail While Humanity Is Under Seige In Gaza

The dawn of October 7, 2023, will be remembered as the most horrific day in the lives of Israeli people in recent times and a day when the world was divided in its outlook towards radical Islamic terrorism and barbarism imposed on Israel. As a citizen of Bharat — which has professed ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ in its efforts to bring the world together — this dastardly attack and killing of innocent children, women, elders and soldiers by Hamas and the terror ecosystem that supports it from across the world; especially the Middle East and Asia, has evoked feelings of sheer disdain towards terrorism and barbarism, which is enshrined in Islamic radicalism.

Options for Israel

Israel has suddenly been subjected to invasion, cruelty and chaos with this Islamic terror perpetrated upon it, with many being taken hostages by an Islamist terror organisation with full knowledge that Israel will eventually punish. The options for Israel are primarily two now, viz; to either bring down the ‘terror ecosystem’ through a concerted, prolonged and effective military operation, with the full-blown impact of ‘Operation Iron Swords’ and that being irrespective of envisaged military and civilian casualties & while its citizens are subjected to a hostage situation; or, alternatively, it could go through an initial tactical retreat, conduct exchange of hostages & Prisoners of War, ensure due return and safety of its citizens who are currently hostages with the concerned terror group(s) and thereafter launch due military offensive, target masterminds and eventually bring down the terror ecosystem and networks.

Option for Terror Ecosystem

On the other hand, if Israel survives — which it must and will — the options for the terror ecosystem are likely to be curtailed and limited to praying, running away, and hiding. In any way, they will be killed eventually; and Palestine effectively will bear the brunt of the hell that has been unleashed by the Islamist terror group(s), with the support of some others across the globe, by initiating such a barbaric attack on Israel.

What the World Could Do

While the world is united, active action from most countries and organisations like NATO will be limited to the supply of war-waging material, many would contribute to administrative and logistics support for now and later engage in rebuilding Israel and providing humanitarian assistance as well.

The United Nations should initiate an Emergency Session. From where they go, beyond a Boardroom Type discussion, is for many to guess, given its teeth being reduced due to UNSC discords. Hopefully, they will lay some stipulations for bringing back peace, while its adherence might not be in their hands to control. Options for the civilized world are limited to two, viz; one being to directly interfere to cease hostilities, while there is little that they can do for now; and the other being to let Israel bring in a desired end-state and achieve their stated goals through ‘Operation Iron Swords’.

In both scenarios, Israel will get assistance to get more advanced weapon systems and protection systems as well. The ‘Five Eyes’ countries are also under observation for this lapse of intelligence in building up war material at the hands of terrorist organisation(s), including weapons from Afghanistan finding their way into the hands of enemies of Israel, sophisticated glider technology being available to terror organisations that now adversely affects the security of Israel. These countries, especially the US, would have to show more than solidarity and send weapon systems and get their own military assets closer for any eventual response that might be needed, should this lead to military escalation by forces inimical to Israel.

Will Israel Survive?

As I pen this down, the existence of Israel must be worrisome for many around the world. With news and rumours of other terror groups joining and even some other militaries assisting this attack on Israel, hypothetically, there could be these three situations that might evolve:

1. Israel will push back inimical fighting forces, reclaim all its land, create a due enlarged buffer zone and survive.
2. Israeli response will be divided and, in some sectors, they might lose ground and while casualties will be more on multiple fronts, Israel will partially survive. However, it may seek the return of lost territories later and may even consolidate and launch an offensive to reclaim those territories.
3. In the eventuality of a multi-prong full military attack being launched on Israel, the odds would shift for now and maybe the casualties and loss of territories become irretrievable. In such a scenario, Israel will not survive as the Israel we know today.

Crystal ball Gazing an End-State

I have always been an optimist that the world at large will not let down a democratic Israel, that Israel has more friends in power structures across the world to support its cause and most importantly, the Israelis have an indomitable spirit to survive and prevail against all odds and they will here too. The end state of this macabre imposed by terrorists on Israel might pan out with more than a few outcomes:

1. Israel will decide the terms for the end of ‘Operation Iron Swords’ and will not be influenced by world opinion and will also get due acknowledgement to do so from many countries. The barbarism displayed by the terrorist organisation(s) against citizens of Israel, being viewed extensively across the world on new media, has created some evil heroes in the Islamic world but has deeply pained and churned the sensibilities of the world at large. This barbarism ought to be crushed in a manner that it doesn’t grow again and all tentacles of this evil hydra, from financing through weaponising, training etc. to execution of terror attacks, will need to be exterminated.
2. When due inputs are received through the intelligence network; much later than when the war ends this time, the plotters, funders, backstabbers etc will come to the fore. Mossad will conduct political assassination(s) of leaders of the terror ecosystem involved and there will be repercussions for those countries that supported this barbaric terror attack on Israel. It is known for the capabilities of Mossad to take down the leadership of an enemy state and from now on, it will only be more visible and brutal and will go down deeper in those hierarchies.
3. Israel will reassess its intelligence network, capabilities, strategic alignments, response mechanisms etc. This would lead to global alignments, procurement of advanced systems and larger capacity building for the protection of civilians. It might also lead to an extension of the Buffer Zone if Israel can exploit the success of ‘Operation Iron Swords’.
4. The civilised world will come together to curate some collective response mechanisms and the role of friends of Israel will get enhanced to create such dynamic structures, with the defined role of assisting each other militarily too.
5. Islamic radicalism and terrorism will be dealt with severely from here on, with preemptive actions being a norm across the world. Israel will seek massive deterrence capabilities and effective measures to take the fight to the enemies in their territories and training grounds.
6. The visible intelligence failures, sophistication of multi-prong attack equipment used, and infusion of the US war material left in Afghanistan finding its way into the hands of the enemies will make Israel weary of few stated friends, and the endeavour to find trustworthy partners will lead to making new ones in future. The alignment of QUAD and part thereof and the consortium of a few countries deeply affected by Islamic radicalisation and terrorism will evolve with more jointness and outreach when one is in crisis.
7. Prompt restructuring of the UN, which is a pending action, will be sought to allow greater freedom for collective action in such precarious situations when a democracy and member state is threatened.

Bharat Beyond: Lessons from Gaza

Bharat has been deeply impacted by Islamic terrorism and radicalisation over decades and has borne the brunt of many military and civil casualties. It has multiple threats along its borders and has largely been fighting its own wars. The impact on Bharat would see the following transformations:

1. It will allow and force Bharat to build better response mechanisms for internal security and border security and it will seek partnerships with like-minded countries and most certainly Israel, to evolve strategies and build weapon and monitoring systems and stitch intelligence networks for an effective response mechanism.
2. Cooperation enhancement with other countries will happen and more collaborative military scenario-based partnerships, to counter Islamic radicalisation and terrorism, will shape the contours of our strategic approach and operational efficacies.
3. Divided polity will tend to polarise the current situation and a steadfast “no terrorism” approach will lead to the focus of the masses on national security. Eventually, the will of the nation will prevail to isolate the anti-national minds and usher in a greater sense of security as a ‘whole of the nation’ approach. Awareness through the education system and by committed organisations like RSS etc will initiate young minds.
4. An increase in preemptive actions, internally and externally, will be a new measure of our intent to tackle Islamic radicalisation and terrorism. Post Balakot, Pakistan has been in a state of anaesthesia but it will always plot against Bharat due to its misplaced ideology governed by the ‘Quranic Concept of War’ which it took upon itself in the 1970s to unleash on Bharat.
5. The war in Gaza will bring Bharat and Israel closer; from R&D and technology development through joint production of weapons and systems, intelligence sharing to even conducting joint operations against terrorists.

The demon of Islamic terror, unleashed on innocent Israelis, will haunt us all, while we pray for the safety of our friends in Israel and wish for heavy punitive action through ‘Operation Iron Swords’. The people-to-people connect and the G2G connect between Bharat and Israel has been growing exponentially and the solidarity is resolute. As we look towards a brighter future, pool in resources to support Israel and unleash capabilities to knock down Islamic radicalisation and terror ecosystems, one hopes that innocent citizens are not targeted, lives are treated as precious, and the world comes together to support Israel.

As leaders like former Prime Minister of Israel, Naftali Bennett joined the war as military commander and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a vowed resolve to obliterate Islamic terror organisations that have acted against Israel, one can feel proud of the young bravehearts of Israel who gladly and willingly are going to war ahead, to do what must be done. Annals of history will judge each of us for where we stood when humanity was struck by brute terror and barbarism. Hope to be on the right side!

Colonel Rohit Dev, a 2nd Generation Army Officer, is an Adjunct Professor at the Rashtriya Raksha University, a Geo-political Analyst and a Primetime TV personality. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.