Here's How India and Pakistan Could Play the World Test Championship Final in 2023

Sri Lanka drawing a second Test series in a row has made the World Test Championship (WTC) 2021-23 points table interesting. After a 1-1 draw against Australia, the Dimuth Karunaratne-led shared the series with Pakistan as well after defeating the tourists by 246 runs in the 2^nd Test in Galle. The Sri Lankans captured the third spot while Pakistan slipped to fifth, behind India by one position.

After drawing the series 1-1 against Pakistan, Sri Lanka currently has a points percentage of 53.33 which is much lesser than the top teams – South Africa (71.43) and Australia (70.0). The island nation has played 9 out of 10 Test series in this cycle. Their last series is against New Zealand which comprises 2 games. If Sri Lanka win it with a 2-0 margin, they will finish on 61.1%. If the series ends 1-1, the points percentage will drop to 52.78. Hence Sri Lanka is almost out of the race of making it to the finals.

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Scenario for Pakistan

Babar Azam’s team is currently fifth with 51.85%, tussling with the likes of India (51.85), West Indies (50), and Sri Lanka (53.33). Pakistan can still keep their chances alive by outclassing England and New Zealand in the upcoming series at home. A total of Tests are scheduled to be played, 3 against England and 2 against the Kiwis. If Pakistan win all five, their percentage will shoot up to 69.05.

Table toppers South Africa have a tough way ahead

The Proteas may be sitting on the top of the table with 71.43% points but their upcoming assignments will test their calibre. Three Tests each against England and Australia followed by two home Tests against West Indies – they have some steep hurdles to cross.

South Africa need to keep their tally to around 66% to make it to the finals. If both overseas series are lost 1-2, they will have 60%. And if they win one of the overseas series 2-1 and lose the other 1-2, they will propel up with 66.67%. In both scenarios, they will need to beat West Indies 2-0.

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Can India make it to the second final in a row?

4^th placed India have no other option than to win all six games in the two series coming up next. 2 games in Bangladesh and 4 against Australia at home; a perfect six on six will hand them 68.06%. That will also give them an edge over the Aussies even if they win all their five home Tests.

To make it easier to understand, if India and Pakistan win all their remaining Tests and if South Africa slip, it will be an extravagant face-off in the final at Lord’s in 2023.

Australia could be dark horses

The Aussies are left with 9 games in this cycle. Four against India, two Tests against West Indies and three against South Africa. Their selection for the finals depends upon how they do in India. If they lose 0-4 to India and then win the rest 5 at home, their points percentage will drop to 63.16. In India gets a perfect six out of six, they’ll leapfrog Australia.

To keep their final hopes alive, Australia need to win at least 6 games out of 9. In that case, their points percentage will be 68.42, putting them in a strong position to qualify.

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