The first image is that of state the chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav taking a holy dip at the confluence of the Ganga and Yamuna on the auspicious day of the mauni amavasya. Nothing wrong in that. Chief Ministers or prime minister, everyone by virtue of the rights enshrined in the constitution are free to practice the faith of his or her choice.
But politics is not about rights. It's about perceptions. Perceptions painstakingly built over years. Sometimes decades. And somehow, this image does not fit into Mulayam Singh's brand of politics. Mulayam may have taken a thousand dips in Ganga earlier, but never has he shown such alacrity to be captured by lensmen performing Hindu rituals and rites.
The performance is even more surprising in the backdrop of challenges he faces in the months ahead. Mulayam Singh is facing one of the toughest battles in his political career. Congress is breathing down his neck to recapture the minority votebank as the beleaguered UP CM marshals every possible resource; including the three Jaya's - Jaya Bachan, Jaya Prada and Jayalalitha- at his disposal to take on the opposition.
For those who have followed Uttar Pradesh politics closely, Mulayam's minority votebank in UP was never a windfall. Maulana Mulayam is a sobriquet that was not gifted to him by his political opponents. He worked hard for it. In fact, he earned it. But at sangam on that mauni amavasya, he was trying to send across a very different message.
Allahabad, the same week was in news again, but for a very different reason. Two female students from a madarsa were picked up at gun- point by some miscreants, raped and dropped at the gates of their hostel. For the opposition, it is yet another example of the deteriorating law and order situation. As in Nithari, Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati was one of the first few political leaders to visit the traumatized girls' hostel. She promptly announced compensation for the victims and demanded imposition of the President's Rule in the state.
No doubt that the former UP CM would not miss an opportunity in her life to join issues with her erstwhile ally, but of late there is a purpose and a method in the way she has hit out at the incumbent government.
When an issue like Nithari should have appealed naturally to the BJP leadership in the state, it is Mayawati who is promising to provide what is most sought after by the urban middle class in UP, security.
These are unconventional methods. There is a marked difference in the way the top two contenders for the CM's post in the state are conducting their politics. Mulayam and Mayawati, the duo is showing a distinct predilection for navigating waters, which for years had remained out of bounds for them. But, why?
Because Uttar Pradesh of 2007 cannot be gauged with the parameters and yardsticks of what is traditionally called post Mandal-Mandir era. Dimensions of the state politics have changed. Religious, caste and even sub-caste configurations have altered considerably. For the first time since 1989 nobody is sure how these sub sections, compartmentalized in their own rights would behave in the coming state elections. Usual and predictable socio-economic-political alliances have broken at the ground level. New bonds are yet to be tested. Which is why politicians in UP are innovating- trying to chart new territory even at the risk of losing their core political power force.
First and foremost, this would be the first election since 1992 in UP to be conducted absolutely out of the shadows of the Ram Mandir movement. There is no pole, whatsoever, that would push Muslim votes towards a particular voting pattern in the state. The chances of BJP coming to power on its own are negligible. In the absence of this polarization, the guessing game on how this large chunk would behave continues. Will Muslims vote tactically to defeat the BJP; or would a dilapidated saffron citadel provide a range of options before the minorities? The choice this time extends from the SP to BSP, congress and even V P Singh-supported and Raj Babbar-led Jan Morcha.
Secondly, it is apparent the BJP has lost ground since 2002. But nobody knows by how much. From the heydays of getting 33 percent votes and 57 Lok Sabha seats out of 85 (Uttarakhand was then a part of the state), its vote share is expected to dwindle to less than 20% this time around.
That the BJP is on a decline was first understood by Mayawati as early as 2002 even as she ruled UP with BJP support. She worked quietly yet purposefully to lure the Brahmin votes. Coincidentally or otherwise, the Raj Bhaiyya episode came to her aid. It was a classic example of making two killings with the same, single arrow. By taking on the Raja of Kunda, head on, she was consolidating her image of being the saviour of the Dalits and the oppressed. But more importantly, Mayawati was inviting Brahmins to her fold.
With the decline of the BJP in UP, social pressures and tensions in UP took a curious turn. The BSP and the SP were the established political forces. The OBCs had gained economically and politically and were an empowered lot, the noe- riches in rural areas and small towns. Dalits had also tasted power under BSP rule, and were now competing or aspiring o compete for resources with the backwards. This was the new social current, apparent and palpable.
But there was also a sub-current, which both Mulayam and Mayawati understood and used to the hilt to damage the BJP. Like subtle but firm rivalry between the Rajputs and the Brahmins for political dominance. It is the old game of one-upmanship that has its genesis in the congress era when these two empowered castes within the Congress competed for resources and political power. It is very much like the Rajput-Bhumihar tussle in Bihar.
So, while Mayawati appealed to the Brahmins by projecting Raja Bhaiya a symbol of Rajput dominance, Mulayam was quick to sympathise and support the Raja of Kunda and strike a chord with the Thakur voters. With these tactical moves, Mulayam and Mayawati added some additional percentage of votes to their respective kitty as BJP and the Congress remained mute spectators. That in a way explains BJP's vote percentage coming down in successive elections.
But is the BJP's downslide more than what meets the eye. Again, nobody knows. When the saffron brigade peaked in the state with 33% vote share, it had won over a considerable section of the non-Yadav OBC votes apart from the upper castes. This included the Lodhs ( Kalyan Singh is a Lodh Rajput). As well as the Kurmis in Rohilkhand region. The Gangwars (former union minister Santosh Gangwar has been winning the Barailly seat for years now) were with the BJP. The question to ask at this juncture is - are these castes still with the BJP; or have they meandered towards greener pastures.
Both Mulayam and Mayawati are aware that there are these pockets of vacuum open to electoral conquest. It is evident that they are wooing these new, uncharted areas from their moves. Reason enough for Mulayam Singh to give two Rajya Sabha seats to the Baniya community- Banwari Lal Kanchal and Mahendra Mohan Gupta- last year. Mayawati has been grooming Satish Chandra Mishra for the same reason.
Uttar Pradesh is in a state of flux and in all likelihood will throw up a hung House. Mulayam and Mayawati are running a close race. The unpredictability factor makes the task of political commentators tougher. Government formation in UP will entirely be a post poll exercise.
Politics has made strange bedfellows in the past. But post polls, two arrangements are the least likely to materialize. These are possible government formations involving either the SP-BSP or the SP-Congress. These two scenarios are not just unlikely but impossible because of strong contradictions and animosity both at the personal and the political level.
Another BSP-BJP tie-up appears to be a feasible and plausible outcome. But for the first time ever, a BJP- Samajwadi Party government cannot also be ruled out. It could be a tough choice for Mulayam Singh Yadav. To decide which is the bigger enemy. Congress or the BJP. That's the reason this election is the toughest political challenge for the Lohiaite from Etawah.
As for Mayawati, she hasn't lost much in the past by aligning with both the Saanpnath and the Naagnath., the terms which she has been using to describe the Congress and the BJP respectively.first published:January 24, 2007, 16:56 ISTlast updated:January 24, 2007, 16:56 IST
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Two images both from the holy town of Prayag and remarkable in every sense. Two images which also define the shifting paradigm in the Uttar Pradesh politics. A shift that was there in every sense but was missing in political discourse or; commentators were either shy or ignorant to see through it. These images are remarkable for they allude towards the end of a chapter in the politics of the most populous state. A chapter that started in 1989 with the advent of V P Singh's mandal politics and RSS's Ram Mandir movement.
The first image is that of state the chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav taking a holy dip at the confluence of the Ganga and Yamuna on the auspicious day of the mauni amavasya. Nothing wrong in that. Chief Ministers or prime minister, everyone by virtue of the rights enshrined in the constitution are free to practice the faith of his or her choice.
But politics is not about rights. It's about perceptions. Perceptions painstakingly built over years. Sometimes decades. And somehow, this image does not fit into Mulayam Singh's brand of politics. Mulayam may have taken a thousand dips in Ganga earlier, but never has he shown such alacrity to be captured by lensmen performing Hindu rituals and rites.
The performance is even more surprising in the backdrop of challenges he faces in the months ahead. Mulayam Singh is facing one of the toughest battles in his political career. Congress is breathing down his neck to recapture the minority votebank as the beleaguered UP CM marshals every possible resource; including the three Jaya's - Jaya Bachan, Jaya Prada and Jayalalitha- at his disposal to take on the opposition.
For those who have followed Uttar Pradesh politics closely, Mulayam's minority votebank in UP was never a windfall. Maulana Mulayam is a sobriquet that was not gifted to him by his political opponents. He worked hard for it. In fact, he earned it. But at sangam on that mauni amavasya, he was trying to send across a very different message.
Allahabad, the same week was in news again, but for a very different reason. Two female students from a madarsa were picked up at gun- point by some miscreants, raped and dropped at the gates of their hostel. For the opposition, it is yet another example of the deteriorating law and order situation. As in Nithari, Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati was one of the first few political leaders to visit the traumatized girls' hostel. She promptly announced compensation for the victims and demanded imposition of the President's Rule in the state.
No doubt that the former UP CM would not miss an opportunity in her life to join issues with her erstwhile ally, but of late there is a purpose and a method in the way she has hit out at the incumbent government.
When an issue like Nithari should have appealed naturally to the BJP leadership in the state, it is Mayawati who is promising to provide what is most sought after by the urban middle class in UP, security.
These are unconventional methods. There is a marked difference in the way the top two contenders for the CM's post in the state are conducting their politics. Mulayam and Mayawati, the duo is showing a distinct predilection for navigating waters, which for years had remained out of bounds for them. But, why?
Because Uttar Pradesh of 2007 cannot be gauged with the parameters and yardsticks of what is traditionally called post Mandal-Mandir era. Dimensions of the state politics have changed. Religious, caste and even sub-caste configurations have altered considerably. For the first time since 1989 nobody is sure how these sub sections, compartmentalized in their own rights would behave in the coming state elections. Usual and predictable socio-economic-political alliances have broken at the ground level. New bonds are yet to be tested. Which is why politicians in UP are innovating- trying to chart new territory even at the risk of losing their core political power force.
First and foremost, this would be the first election since 1992 in UP to be conducted absolutely out of the shadows of the Ram Mandir movement. There is no pole, whatsoever, that would push Muslim votes towards a particular voting pattern in the state. The chances of BJP coming to power on its own are negligible. In the absence of this polarization, the guessing game on how this large chunk would behave continues. Will Muslims vote tactically to defeat the BJP; or would a dilapidated saffron citadel provide a range of options before the minorities? The choice this time extends from the SP to BSP, congress and even V P Singh-supported and Raj Babbar-led Jan Morcha.
Secondly, it is apparent the BJP has lost ground since 2002. But nobody knows by how much. From the heydays of getting 33 percent votes and 57 Lok Sabha seats out of 85 (Uttarakhand was then a part of the state), its vote share is expected to dwindle to less than 20% this time around.
That the BJP is on a decline was first understood by Mayawati as early as 2002 even as she ruled UP with BJP support. She worked quietly yet purposefully to lure the Brahmin votes. Coincidentally or otherwise, the Raj Bhaiyya episode came to her aid. It was a classic example of making two killings with the same, single arrow. By taking on the Raja of Kunda, head on, she was consolidating her image of being the saviour of the Dalits and the oppressed. But more importantly, Mayawati was inviting Brahmins to her fold.
With the decline of the BJP in UP, social pressures and tensions in UP took a curious turn. The BSP and the SP were the established political forces. The OBCs had gained economically and politically and were an empowered lot, the noe- riches in rural areas and small towns. Dalits had also tasted power under BSP rule, and were now competing or aspiring o compete for resources with the backwards. This was the new social current, apparent and palpable.
But there was also a sub-current, which both Mulayam and Mayawati understood and used to the hilt to damage the BJP. Like subtle but firm rivalry between the Rajputs and the Brahmins for political dominance. It is the old game of one-upmanship that has its genesis in the congress era when these two empowered castes within the Congress competed for resources and political power. It is very much like the Rajput-Bhumihar tussle in Bihar.
So, while Mayawati appealed to the Brahmins by projecting Raja Bhaiya a symbol of Rajput dominance, Mulayam was quick to sympathise and support the Raja of Kunda and strike a chord with the Thakur voters. With these tactical moves, Mulayam and Mayawati added some additional percentage of votes to their respective kitty as BJP and the Congress remained mute spectators. That in a way explains BJP's vote percentage coming down in successive elections.
But is the BJP's downslide more than what meets the eye. Again, nobody knows. When the saffron brigade peaked in the state with 33% vote share, it had won over a considerable section of the non-Yadav OBC votes apart from the upper castes. This included the Lodhs ( Kalyan Singh is a Lodh Rajput). As well as the Kurmis in Rohilkhand region. The Gangwars (former union minister Santosh Gangwar has been winning the Barailly seat for years now) were with the BJP. The question to ask at this juncture is - are these castes still with the BJP; or have they meandered towards greener pastures.
Both Mulayam and Mayawati are aware that there are these pockets of vacuum open to electoral conquest. It is evident that they are wooing these new, uncharted areas from their moves. Reason enough for Mulayam Singh to give two Rajya Sabha seats to the Baniya community- Banwari Lal Kanchal and Mahendra Mohan Gupta- last year. Mayawati has been grooming Satish Chandra Mishra for the same reason.
Uttar Pradesh is in a state of flux and in all likelihood will throw up a hung House. Mulayam and Mayawati are running a close race. The unpredictability factor makes the task of political commentators tougher. Government formation in UP will entirely be a post poll exercise.
Politics has made strange bedfellows in the past. But post polls, two arrangements are the least likely to materialize. These are possible government formations involving either the SP-BSP or the SP-Congress. These two scenarios are not just unlikely but impossible because of strong contradictions and animosity both at the personal and the political level.
Another BSP-BJP tie-up appears to be a feasible and plausible outcome. But for the first time ever, a BJP- Samajwadi Party government cannot also be ruled out. It could be a tough choice for Mulayam Singh Yadav. To decide which is the bigger enemy. Congress or the BJP. That's the reason this election is the toughest political challenge for the Lohiaite from Etawah.
As for Mayawati, she hasn't lost much in the past by aligning with both the Saanpnath and the Naagnath., the terms which she has been using to describe the Congress and the BJP respectively.
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