Tokyo: Unchecked global warming may increase the risk of flooding at the end of this century in 42 per cent of the Earth's land surface, including parts of India, Southeast Asia and Africa, a new study has warned. According to a research team led by Yukiko Hirabayashi at the University of Tokyo's Institute of Engineering Innovation, the number of people exposed to the risk of flooding would increase from the current estimate of 5.6 million to 80 million by 2100 if temperatures rise by 3.5 C degrees during the period.
"An ensemble of projections under a new high-concentration scenario demonstrates a large increase in flood frequency in Southeast Asia, Peninsular India, eastern Africa and the northern half of the Andes, with small uncertainty in the direction of change," the study said. However, flood frequency is projected to decline in certain areas covering 18 per cent of the land surface, it said.
The research team made the projections based on the output of 11 existing climate models and its own programme designed to forecast river inundation, The Japan Times quoted Kyodo News agency as reporting. If global warming progresses without effective countermeasures, many of the world's 29 major rivers would see massive floods, which currently occur once a century, at an increased frequency of every 10 to 50 years, the researchers said. The study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
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