Narendar Pani, Professor, School of Social Sciences, National Institute of Advanced Studies, joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the Karnataka Assembly elections 2013.
Q. Simple question, who will win? Asked by: feroz
A. The general expectation is that this election is for the Congress to lose. The number of politicians from all parties seeking a Congress ticket supports this view. The trouble for the Congress is that it has lost from such a position before, simply because of the trouble it has in choosing the right candidates. This time too it has had protests against the official candidates. But the party will be hoping that the disgruntled elements are not strong enough to prevent the party from capitalizing on a general anti-incumbency mood against the BJP.
Q. Infighting & seat to kin may affect few seats of Cong? Asked by: Hari
A. There will be an effect, as these factors have always affected the Congress in Karnataka. The question is how great will the effect be. As of now the indications are that tickets to family members has been less than in the past. But it is only after the nominations are filed and the last date of withdrawals is over that we will know.
Q. Can Modi's campaign turn around things for BJP? Asked by: Harry
A. As of now it does not look like Modi himself thinks so. He has not taken a prominent position in the campaign. He was not a part of the national leadership that launched the campaign and he is apparently only going to make a fleeting appearance during the rest of the campaign.
Q. Is there any politician or political party in Karnataka who is not corrupt so that I can vote for them? Asked by: prthap
A. The differences in the levels of corruption in Karnataka, as indeed elsewhere in India, is only a matter of degree. And sometimes we tend to thrust a clean image on parties in the hope that they will live up to it. The experience of the BJP in Karnataka belies this hope. With its many scams and land grabs the BJP's governance suggests that even parties that claim to be different to begin with turn out just the same once they are in power.
Q. Since Elections in most of the states in India are 2 party, either its Cong V/S BJP or TMC v/s CPM, or AIDMK V/S DMK, Elections in state like Karnataka becomes a perfect ground for Horse Trading post elections because of Muiltiple parties are fighting the Election, & to avoid this EC should make it mandatory to make it a 2 party fight in every state as any ways the govt. Will be form by either of the 2 parties with the support of 3rd or 4th or 5th party Asked by: Prashant
A. I am not sure giving the people only two equally bad options is a good thing. As long as there are new parties emerging there is always the hope of a new political entity capturing the imagination of the people with a meaningful programme.
Q. Overall .. how was the performance of BJP in last 5 years .. is rural Karnataka satisfied about development Asked by: Sil
A. Even those who are not supporters of the BJP have been surprised by how badly the party has done in power. Given the high moral ground that the party once claimed it was not expected even by its worst enemies to allow corruption to reach the depths that it has in Karnataka under BJP rule. The rural areas have paid a major price for this corruption through the diversion of development funds. There have of course been other corrupt governments in Karnataka. But the ones that got re-elected typically had a major rural initiative like land reforms or decentralization. There has been no sign of such an initiative from the BJP.
Q. Can BJP surprise in this election? Asked by: vankat
A. No possibility can be ruled out in an Indian election! But given the general mood in the state right now, it would indeed be a huge surprise.
Q. Letting Yeddyurappa go was a mistake from BJP? Asked by: Ashwini Nagur
A. I don't think so. He can certainly damage the party in this election. But allowing him to consolidate his support for corruption in various forms would have hurt the part in the rest of the country, and even in Karnataka in the long term.
Q. Sir, there is so much infighting in the congress in Karnataka. Do you think congress has a chance to come back to power if there are so many rebel candidates in almost every assembly seat? Asked by: Kiran Pinto
A. Congress has always had rebel candidates. The question is how strong are the rebels. We can only get a picture of this once the nominations are filed.
Q. Has any rebel candidate from Congress filed his nomination as an independent candidate? Asked by: Ankit
A. Not so far. But some important politicians are threatening to do so if they are not given the ticket.
Q. Do you think Mr Shettar will be elected as CM if BJP wins. As he says he is playing 20-20 political innings. How do you assess him till now.He seems very soft spoken and not authoritative. Asked by: Anand Patil
A. Given the BJP's options he would appear to be their best bet. There will no doubt be others with greater influence in Delhi exerting pressure on the central leadership if the BJP wins. His image of a quiet but effective politician tends to go down well in Karnataka. Its more flamboyant chief ministers like Mr Gundu Rao have been soundly defeated.
Q. Who according to you is a good CM candidate if Cong wins? Asked by: avishek
A. Siddaramaiah is widely expected to be the Congress candidate for Chief Minister. He tends to be sensible on economic matters which is something the state needs badly right now. But he is by no means the only candidate. And the Congress High Command has been known to do unexpected!
Q. Can this election be a blessing in disguise for BJP? as Congress win would tempt her to dissolve parliament and go for early polls. Asked by: vankat
A. If the Congress sees a national pattern in what happens in Karnataka they would be quite clearly out of touch with reality! Indeed, if anti-incumbency plays a role against the BJP in Karnataka, it would have the same effect on the Congress at the national level.
Q. What will be the seat positions in your view after the elections? Asked by: Elvij
A. Trying to predict numbers in an election as volatile as those in Karnataka is asking for trouble. But in a country that predicts how much Tendulkar will score in his next innings, the temptation to throw a few numbers is too much to resist. As of now I would think in the 224 member assembly: Congress 116, JD(S) 50, BJP 45, and 13 going to others including Yeddyurappa's KJP.
Q. Compared to previous Governments, How BJP is Different in all aspects..? Asked by: Vinay Patil
A. The most surprising thing is the extent to which it has been blatantly corrupt. Karnataka has a long history of corruption, but few parties in power have been as casual about it. Opposition MLAs have been openly invited to quit their parties and get re-elected as BJP members with the tacit understanding that the cost of the fresh election will be made up once they are in power. Beyond corruption the party has not shown any fresh ideas in getting Karnataka's economy going. There have been worse governments in Karnataka, especially Mr Gundu Rao's trigger happy one in the early 1980s. But when the BJP came to power it would not have set Mr Gundu Rao as its bench mark.
Q. Has the appointment of a new BJP President decreased infighting in the party? Do you the think that the party looks more united than say it was a month before? Asked by: Ankit
A. The BJP certainly looks more cohesive today than it was a month ago. But whether this is only because the disgruntled elements have joined other parties is the moot question.
Q. Who among the three was the good chief minister of BJP? Asked by: Elvij
A. I suppose I would have to say Mr Shettar was the best, but I would still hesitate to use the word 'good'.
Q. Will BJP be able to do well in coastal Karnataka after their poor show in local body election? Asked by: Vinol
A. The voter response to the BJP in coastal Karnataka in the local body election was a very angry one. The BJP has tried to make amends by not giving tickets to some MLAs in the region. But whether that will be enough to reduce voter anger remains to be seen.
Q. Elections in Karnataka is all about caste,if the BJP can hold to the Lingayat votebank,they will surprise.It all depends on How Shettar deals with the Lingayat mutts. Premature to write them off. Asked by: Ibn viewer
A. Maybe. But they certainly have their backs to the wall right now.
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