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(Rajeev L Karandikar is one of India's best election analysts and the Director of Chennai Mathematical Institute. He spoke to IBNLIVE from Chennai)
The Delhi Assembly election result is stunning. It is unbelievable. Very rarely we get such landslide victories in elections. It has happened now. It is a Tamil Nadu kind of result. The rout of the BJP led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a big setback for him. What is important is the total disappearance of the Congress. Historically, Delhi has always voted for a single party in the previous elections except the 2013 election. This kind of victory is not uncommon, though the scale of the victory is huge and unbelievable.
Till 2013, Delhi had always witnessed a two way fight. In 1998 March, A B Vajpayee led BJP came to power at the Centre. After 8 months, Sheila Dixit led Congress swept the polls by defeating the ruling BJP both at the Centre and in Delhi state. Eleven months later, the BJP won all 7 Lok Sabha seats from Delhi. Delhi behaving like this is a norm. It should not be a surprise. I am not rationalizing the huge win of the AAP by throwing up statistics and past data. I am just trying to make sense of it.
The winning party winning almost every seat and getting over 60 per cent votes is not a normal thing in Indian elections. It happens rarely. The local issues seem to have played a big role in deciding AAP's win. Once we get the final poll data, we can analyse the results.
In my opinion, there are many reasons for the defeat of the BJP and decimation of the Congress. I can't say that it is a personal defeat of Modi. However it is a setback to him. Delhi has halted his victory march. It reduces maneuvering space for him. He will lose his bargaining power to some extent.
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won 73 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Nothing has happened to the SP government in the state. But, it has reduced the bargaining power. I can say it is a warning to both the BJP and the Congress.
The debacle of the Congress can be explained in many ways. I can't say that it is the end of the Congress. It is a big political party. It can still bounce back. It has seen much worse in the past. The Congress is a resilient party and it can stage a comeback if it gets its acts together. Most of the Congress votes have been transferred to the AAP. There could be several reasons. The Congress may have allowed the AAP to win by lying low or not campaigning much just to prevent the win of the BJP. I don't think that there was an overt understanding. But, there could be a tacit understanding.
Nothing is permanent in politics. Who would have thought that the AAP would literally sweep Delhi when Kejriwal quit as chief minister in February 2014?
The Congress has brand equity. But, certainly reduces its power to bargain in Bihar election. The Congress can't dictate the terms. It will have to accept whatever the others decide.
Look at the AAP. It has some humility. They publicly accepted that resigning was a mistake. The Congress or the BJP won't do that.
As I have said in the beginning the AAP win is truly stunning and unbelievable.
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