Kolkata: In a significant political development ahead of the West Bengal assembly polls in 2021, Lok Sabha lawmaker Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is getting support from an influential Muslim cleric in the state, Abbas Siddiqui.
Analysts say the AIMIM and Abbas Siddiqui congruity spells trouble for chief minister Mamata Banerjee as the Muslim vote share, which helped her oust the Left Front in 2011, is inevitably going to be divided.
Both Owaisi and Siddiqui have decided to contest the polls. While Siddiqui is reportedly going to fight on nearly 50 assembly seats, the AIMIM is yet to decide on the number of seats it plans to contest.
Siddiqui is an influential cleric of the Furfura Darbar Sharif located in Jangipara in Hooghly district and his decision to contest the 2021 state elections and extending support to Owaisi is a concern for the ruling Trinamool Congress due to inevitable division in Muslim votes, political observers say.
Siddiqui in some public meetings said he is a “fan” of Asaduddin Owaisi. Though he has been critical of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), his decision to contest the assembly polls is likely to help the saffron brigade.
Speaking to the News18, a madrasa teacher close to Siddiqui said, “We are in talks with several ground leaders and we have decided to contest the polls in at least 50 seats. It could be more as the final decision is yet to be taken.”
On the matter of Asaduddin Owaisi, he said, “Yes, we are supporting him and trying to work out some political formula to contest the polls. We have decided to contest because we thought that it is the only way to fight against those who are trying to create a division in our society on the basis of religion.”
With a more than 31 per cent vote share, Muslims are undeniably a crucial factor in West Bengal.
They were decisive in continuation of the Left rule till TMC chief Mamata Banerjee came to power in 2011.
Mamata knows well that any significant division in the Muslim vote share – a deciding factor in nearly 90 assembly seats out of the 294 in the state – could jeopardise her Mission 2021.
“Abbas Siddiqui is an influential leader among the Muslim community and on many occasions he has openly supported AIMIM. Now, if both of them (Abbas and AIMIM) will contest then our vote share will reduce to insignificance. It is going to be a big headache for us,” a senior TMC leader said.
Owaisi sees huge political opportunity in Bengal and since 2011 his party has slowly been working in the areas of the state bordering Bangladesh where the Muslim population is high.
After winning the Kishanganj assembly seat in Bihar for the first time during a bypoll last year, Owaisi paid more attention towards Bengal. Though he is yet to launch AIMIM officially in the state, Owaisi has already engaging with the local youths to spread AIMIM’s ideology and the party’s stand towards Muslims mainly in Kolkata, North Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad, Jalpaiguri and Nadia districts.
When contacted, AIMIM’s West Bengal head Jamirul Hassan said, “We are certainly going to contest the elections in Bengal but the number of seats will be decided only after the Bihar polls. There are some influential Muslim clerics in Bengal who are extending their support to us. We are also in talks with a mainstream political party to contest the polls together in Bengal. We will announce our decision at an appropriate time.”
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the state witnessed polarised two-way voting. The BJP made a Hindutva push, while the TMC banked on Muslims. Such was the polarisation that even the Matuas, strong supporters of the TMC till then, voted for the BJP for raising the issue of citizenship.
While the schism came as concern for the Trinamool with Hindu votes gravitating towards the BJP, Abbas Siddiqui and AIMIM’s plan to contest next year’s assembly polls could be a boon for the saffron party due to the imminent splintering of Muslim votes.
In 2019, the TMC got 43 per cent votes despite losing 12 seats, which is 5 per cent more, because of Muslim support, as compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In 2014, the TMC got 34 seats, while in 2019 it could secure only 22.
On the other hand, in the 2016 assembly elections, the BJP’s vote share was 12 per cent and in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls it went up to 39 per cent, mainly because of Hindus gravitating towards it.
In West Bengal, Kolkata city has a nearly 22 per cent Muslim population while the highest, nearly 67 per cent, is in Murshidabad district. The second and third highest Muslim populations are in Malda (52 per cent) and North Dinajpur (51 per cent).
West Bengal accounts for the second highest Muslim population in India, which is nearly 2.47 crore, or about 27.5 per cent of residents.
In the 2016 assembly polls, the TMC was ahead in nearly 90 minority-dominated assembly segments. In densely Muslim- populated areas, comprising more than 40 per cent of the electorate, the Trinamool was ahead in nearly 60 out of 65 such constituencies.
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