The CNN-IBN-Lokniti survey clearly shows that BJP is emerging as the single largest party and Narendra Modi is emerging as the top PM contender. Only Kerala is bucking both these trends. As in the past there is no inclination for BJP and nor are the voters interested in Modi as PM.
In West Bengal, too, where TMC is the top choice, Modi is top on the list of PM candidates. In Kerala only seven per cent want him as Prime Minister, down from 10.
How is the Congress holding ground in Kerala? I can think of a few reasons. Foremost is the popularity of the incumbent Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. Two thirds of the people surveyed said his mass contact programme, which has won last year's UN public service award, is a genuine effort to reach out.
I was at one of his mass contact programmes recently in Kollam district. Huge crowds high on expectations swarmed the venue. Oommen Chandy met and resolved issues of people, sanctioned funds for patients with immediate needs. It went on for almost 18 hours.
Oomen Chandy is the god of small things in Kerala. Our poll shows that even among the Left Front supporters his outreach is popular.
The solar scam and sexual harassment charges against some ministers did dent the image of the Oommen Chandy govt. But as our poll suggests, Chandy's popularity has only risen and the party is set to record one of its best performances.
The second reason is that the Muslim League is making no stone unturned to make things smooth for Congress in Kerala to keep Modi away. Initially they made tough demands on Oommen Chandy like wanting five ministers in the cabinet. Now they have moderated their view and are getting the Muslim community to rally around the Congress-led front.
And this is reflecting in our poll. Muslims and Christians are solidly behind Congress while most Hindus prefer the previous Left Front government.
The absence of CPM leader VS Achuthanandan is the other big factor that has helped the Congress. The Left does not have a charismatic magnet to attract the non-core voter. Pinarayi Vijayan is no comparison to VS who is a vintage version of the new-age anarchist Arvind Kejriwal.
The BJP was never a force to reckon with in Kerala. The RSS has a dedicated following. Modi did generate a lot of interest and inquisitiveness. I could sense it when he recently addressed followers of Mata Amritananda Mayi.
More than 2 lakh people listened to his idea of India and inclusiveness (in the most inclusive state in India, Modi could not have taken any other tangent). Modi could energise the cadre. But it will be a tough task that will take time.
In 1957 Kerala had the first elected communist government anywhere in the world when Congress dominated Indian politics. In 1977 after emergency when India voted Indira Gandhi out, Kerala chose to vote for her.
In 2014 when there are winds of change in the air, Kerala could choose to be different. The society it seems is uncomfortable with the idea of Modi. It is mindful of its inclusiveness. The politics of this state will want to ally with its social mindset.
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