News18 Mega Opinion Poll: 26/26 Predicted for BJP in Gujarat; INDIA May Not Open Account in Modi's Home State

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is all set for a clean sweep in Gujarat in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, while the opposition INDIA bloc may not be able to open its account in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state. The saffron party is predicted to win all 26 seats, as per the News18 Mega Opinion Poll.

The poll has predicted 56 per cent vote share for the BJP, 36 per cent for the INDIA bloc and 8 per cent for other parties in the fray.

CNN-News18’s survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95 per cent of all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.

The Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have struck up a seat-sharing pact in Gujarat. As per the formula, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party will contest from Bharuch and Bhavnagar Lok Sabha seats and the Congress on the rest 24.

The BJP had whitewashed Congress in the 2019 and 2014 general elections by winning all 26 constituencies in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

In the 2022 state Assembly elections, the BJP had retained power with a record mandate of 156 seats. The Congress won only 17 seats and the AAP won five out of 182.

In the Bharuch constituency, the BJP secured 51% votes, 12% more than the combined vote share of Congress (around 26%) and AAP (13%).

Two sitting MLAs and a former legislator are among the seven candidates in Gujarat whose names were declared by the Congress last week.

Two-term Congress legislator from Vav constituency, Geniben Thakor, has been given the ticket by the party to contest from the Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat in north Gujarat. She is pitted against Bharatiya Janata Party’s Rekhaben Chaudhary, whose name was declared in the ruling party’s first list of candidates. Thakor won the Vav seat twice – in 2017 and 2022, having defeated BJP heavyweight Shankar Chaudhary during the 2017 election.

The Congress also fielded its MLA Anant Patel from Valsad seat, which is reserved for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) community. A tribal leader, Patel is a sitting MLA from Vansda seat. The party also gave a second chance to its former MLA Lalit Vasoya to contest from Porbandar Lok Sabha seat.

Vasoya had unsuccessfully contested the Porbandar parliamentary seat in 2019 as the then sitting Congress MLA from Dhoraji seat. He was defeated in the 2022 assembly election from the Dhoraji seat. He will contest against Union minister Mansukh Mandaviya, who has been fielded by the BJP from the Porbandar seat.

From the Ahmedabad (East) Parliamentary seat, the party has fielded its national spokesperson Rohan Gupta. A vocal face on national news channels, Gupta had also served as the chairperson of the social media department of the party in the past.

The grand old party fielded new faces from the Kutch (Scheduled Caste-reserved seat), Ahmedabad (West) (SC) and Bardoli (ST) seats. It also announced the names of Nitish Lalan, Bharat Makwana and Siddharth Chaudhary for these seats respectively.

Lalan is pitted against sitting BJP MP Vinod Chavda, Bharat Makwana against Dinesh Makwana, and Chaudhary against Prabhu Vasava.

The BJP has not yet declared the names of candidates for Ahmedabad (East) and Valsad seats.

About the survey

All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each constituency, three Vidhan Sabha segments were chosen. Five polling booths were selected in each assembly constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Using a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling. A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.

Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geotagged to verify its authenticity.