The Lok Sabha election results have have kept meme factories running overtime on social media since June 4. Revelling in this demand and supply of election content is the Congress Kerala X handle @INCKerala which posted a photo of Akhilesh Yadav and Chandrababu Naidu sitting and chatting. The caption asked the BJP not to worry since it’s an old photo, a jibe at the saffron party which now has to rely on allies like Naidu’s TDP and Nitish Kumar’s JD-U to form the government at the Centre. In the same vein, Congress’ Youth Wing chief BS Srinivas posted a dated video of party chief Mallikarjun Kharge welcoming Nitish Kumar.
Both posts clearly mentioned that the photos were dated, but suggested that similar photo-ops could come to pass in the future, implying that Naidu and Nitish could ditch the NDA as they have done in the past. But this time, it makes more sense for both TDP and JD-U to stick with the NDA throughout the next five years.
MORE IMPORTANT IN NDA THAN IN I.N.D.I.A
With 16 seats, Naidu’s TDP is the second largest party in the National Democratic Alliance after the BJP which won 240 seats, giving it much more room to ask for key portfolios and even the Lok Sabha Speaker’s post. The second rank makes the TDP’s position important in the NDA.
In the INDIA bloc, the TDP would have been nowhere near the second spot. With an Independent MP in Maharashtra lending it support, the Congress has touched 100 seats in the Lok Sabha. Next comes Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party whose 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh turned the election on its head. Then is Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress with 29 seats followed by MK Stalin’s DMK with 22 seats.
These are much bigger numbers than Naidu’s 16 seats, which makes them first in line for plum ministries and positions in any attempt at government formation. Had the TDP switched to the INDIA bloc and still wanted the Lok Sabah Speaker’s post, it would have to battle the Congress, SP, TMC and DMK who emerged better performers. In the NDA, regardless of the election outcome, the TDP’s demand for the same is taken with more seriousness since the BJP is dependent on it for support.
Similarly, Nitish Kumar’s JD-U with just 12 seats is the third largest party in the NDA, but would have been the sixth largest in the INDIA bloc had both Naidu and Nitish switched over.
ANDHRA PACKAGE & AGNIVEER
If the TDP walks out of the NDA and the INDIA bloc fails to form the government, Naidu’s party would be out of power. It’s primary promise to the people of Andhra — that it will get special status for the state — will be left hanging in the balance. Even if the INDIA bloc got to form the government, TDP’s electoral promise won’t be a key concern for it since it would fulfill demands of bigger parties from the North and East first.
Government sources say the nomenclature of ‘special status’ no longer exists, but the new Narendra Modi government will provide as much economic aid to Andhra Pradesh as required for its development, including building Naidu’s dream city Amravati. The TDP had quit the NDA in 2018 over a similar demand. Though the JDU has also been making noise for similar aid for Bihar, Modi can better reign it in unlike the INDIA front where the Prime Minister itself is undecided.
The BJP and the JD-U have suffered in areas like Sasaram, Aurangabad, Arah, Jehanabad, Patliputra, and Buxar due to sentiments against the Agniveer scheme. Soon after the NDA leaders’ meeting, JD-U’s KC Tyagi floated the idea of a “relook” at the scheme. Being the number No.3 party in the NDA it has a much better chance of getting small modifications to the scheme.
Additionally, no party would want to stay out of power. Joining the INDIA bloc would complicate the TDP’s relationship with the BJP in the state government well. Nitish Kumar, too, risk it with Bihar going to polls next year.
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