Jaunpur Lok Sabha Elections: BSP's 11th Hour Candidate Change Adds Sensational Twist to BJP vs SP

The Jaunpur Lok Sabha constituency is one of 80 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. It is a general category seat and comprises part of Jaunpur district. Five Assembly segments fall under the Jaunpur Lok Sabha seat, of which the BJP currently holds two (Badlapur and Jaunpur), the Samajwadi Party holds two (Malhani and Mungra Badshahpur) and one is with the NISHAD party (Shahganj).

Polling Date — May 25, 2024; Phase 6

Sitting MP — Shyam Singh Yadav (BSP)

Candidates — Kripashankar Singh (BJP), Babu Singh Kushwaha (Samajwadi Party), Shyam Singh Yadav (BSP)

Political Dynamics

• It’s been 44 years since Jaunpur gave consecutive mandate to any party and 53 years since it repeated an MP. The last time a party got back-to-back wins in Jaunpur was the Janata Party in 1977 and 1980 elections. The last Jaunpur MP who got two wins on the trot was Rajdeo Singh of the Congress who won in 1963, 1967 and 1971.
• The 2024 contest in Jaunpur is a three-cornered one between the BJP, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, which changed its candidate at the last-minute.
• BJP’s Surprise Pick: The saffron party’s candidate for Jaunpur is Kripashankar Singh, a surprise pick given that the Uttar Pradesh native is more popular and active in Maharashtra politics.
• Singh was with the Congress earlier and had served as Minister of State for Home under then-CM Vilasrao Deshmukh.
• The veteran politician, who is originally from Jaunpur, had stepped down from the ministerial position after facing corruption allegations and joined the BJP in 2021. He was soon made the Maharashtra unit vice-president of the BJP.
• In the BJP, as it was in the Congress, Singh’s main task has been to consolidate the sizeable North Indian migrant voters.
• It is being speculated that since Singh is contesting from Jaunpur, his daughter Sunita Singh may get a BJP ticket for the Maharashtra Assembly elections later this year.
• According to Singh, the fact that he has been away from Jaunpur for decades isn’t a factor in these elections. He maintains he never lost touch with the people of Jaunpur.
• He is mostly banking on the fact that Uttar Pradesh is known to overwhelmingly vote for PM Narendra Modi and the BJP.
• Mayawati’s 11th Hour Logic: In a move that may end up benefitting the BJP in Jaunpur, Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati replaced the party’s candidate here at the 11th hour. Instead of Shrikala Reddy, the wife of convicted former MP Dhananjay Singh, sitting MP Shyam Singh Yadav will contest from the seat.
• If he wins, Yadav will be the first sitting MP since 1971 to be repeated consecutively.
• Shyam Singh Yadav had won the 2019 elections from Jaunpur on a BSP ticket by a margin of 60,351 votes and with 50.08% vote share. The BSP and SP had fought the election together back then. BJP’s Krishna Pratap Singh was the first runner-up, followed by Congress’s Deo Vrat Mishra.
• BSP Helping BJP? Mayawati’s move to change the Jaunpur candidate at the last-minute has puzzled observers, many of whom say the only conclusion that can be drawn is that the BSP is tacitly helping the BJP in the seat.
• The conviction of Dhananjay Singh in a 2020 case of kidnapping and extortion of a Namami Gange project manager was in itself a massive shot in the arm for the BJP since it made Singh ineligible to contest Jaunpur elections. He has been sentenced to seven years’ rigorous imprisonment. The Allahabad High Court on April 27 granted bail to Singh but refused his plea to suspend or stay the sentence.
• Had the BSP been able to field Singh, his clout in Jaunpur would have more or less guaranteed the seat for Mayawati’s party.
• With Singh unable to fight, it was near certain that the ticket would go to his wife Shrikala Reddy, who would be able to win on her husband’s name.
• But now with the BSP deciding to not field anyone with an association to Dhananjay Singh, the playing field is not only levelled but tilting towards the BJP.
• Dhananjay Singh has not been happy with the developments, saying his wife has been hurt. He also denied rumours that his wife returned the ticket.
• SP Challenger: Babu Singh Kushwaha, a former BSP leader and an accused in the Uttar Pradesh NRHM scam of 2012, is contesting from the seat on a Samajwadi Party ticket.
• Kushwaha is from the OBC community and was previously with the BSP. He was a minister in the Mayawati cabinet.
• Sacked by Mayawati over the corruption charges, he joined the BJP but eventually shifted to the Samajwadi Party.
• There was much opposition to Kushwaha’s candidature and slogans were also raised against him by party workers in April, leading to a scuffle.
• Caste Factors: Jaunpur is a Yadav-dominated seat, and the community is the traditional vote bank of the Samajwadi Party. In 2019, Yadavs had consolidated behind the SP-BSP candidate Shyam Singh Yadav, ensuring his victory.
• But this time, both parties are fighting the elections separately. The SP is part of the opposition INDIA bloc now.
• With the BSP fielding sitting MP Shyam Singh Yadav, the Yadav votes (approximately 3.5 lakh) could be split between the two parties, thus benefitting the BJP.
• The Thakur, meanwhile, account for 2 lakh voters. With Dhananjay Singh’s wife dropped as a candidate, the community is said to be upset with the BSP and may vote for the BJP which has also fielded a Thakur candidate.
• Around 2.5 lakh Brahmin voters are likely to side with the BJP too.
• Modi and Yogi Double-Engine: PM Modi remains the BJP’s biggest trump card in Uttar Pradesh, with his candidature from Varanasi having a major impact on other constituencies as well.
• The construction and inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya is the party’s flagship pitch to voters in the state, with PM Modi as the driving force behind it.
• The party is also banking on the perception that the Yogi Adityanath government has “zero tolerance” towards crime.
• The Poorvanchal region which includes Jaunpur is especially notorious for the rule of mafia dons and gangsters.
• The conviction of Dhananjay Singh during BJP rule in the state is also a major feather in the party’s cap.

Key Constituency Issues

• Purvanchal Statehood: The demand for a separate state of Purvanchal in the Bhojpuri region of eastern Uttar Pradesh has been a long-pending one. Pro-statehood activist groups want Varanasi to be the capital of the proposed state and Bhojpuri as the official language.
• The demand for splitting Uttar Pradesh into Harit Pradesh (western UP), Poorvanchal (eastern UP), Bundelkhand and Awadh is raked up from time to time, and come elections, it gains momentum.
• The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), headed by Mayawati, was once a strong supporter of the demand when the Samajwadi Party was in power, on development and law and order issues, maintaining that smaller states could be governed better.
• As the chief minister, Mayawati had first raised the issue in 2007 and her government had even adopted a resolution in the Assembly seeking division of the state into four parts.
• Both the BJP and the Congress had supported the resolution brought by Mayawati in the 403-member House.
• But, as Mayawati lost power in 2012 after winning just 80 seats against 206 seats in 2007, her demand lost steam.
• The issue may not be a burning one in the 2024 elections in Jaunpur, but there are pockets where it’s an emotive topic.
• Need for Over-bridges: Entry into Jaunpur is near impossible without going through railway crossings, leading to build up of traffic that chokes arterial points leading to the region.
• Locals have been demanding over-bridges to bypass the railway crossings for years now, but progress has been slow on that count.
• The lack of such bypass options is particularly felt on roads leading to Jaunpur from Lucknow, Varanasi, Azamgarh and Prayagraj.
• Jobs: Lack of adequate employment opportunities for youth in Jaunpur is one of thy key election issues this time.
• Locals complain that despite the overall employment rate showing recovery in Uttar Pradesh, youth from Jaunpur are still forced to migrate for work.
• Supervision of Central Schemes: While welfare schemes launched by the central government like Swachh Bharat, Awas Yojana and Jal Shakti Mission, are making rapid strides in addressing problems like cleanliness, housing and water shortage, there are gaps in supervising the pace of implementation on ground.
• As per local sources, lack of last-mile coordination is leading to delays in implementation, particularly in the PM rural housing scheme.

Explore in-depth coverage of Lok Sabha Election 2024 Schedule, Voter Turnout, Upcoming Phase And Much More At News18 Website