The Congress is eyeing a comeback in Haryana after 10 years, banking on anti-incumbency against the state’s BJP government and its own relative ascendance since the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.
The BJP, which changed its chief minister from Manohar Lal Khattar to Nayab Singh Saini just months ahead of the assembly elections, is depending on a strategy of splintering key vote banks to retain power and relevance.
READ MORE | BJP’s Final Push in Haryana: Portray Congress as ‘Divisive’ to 21% Dalits & ‘Pro-Dalit’ to 26% Jats
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a rally at Palwal on Monday (October 1), called the Congress an “anti-Dalit” and “anti-reservation” party. The Congress, which has called for a caste census and makes a similar allegation against the BJP, is keen that the Jats and Dalits consolidate behind it.
Modi, Congress leaders Priyanka Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi among others have led the intense campaigning, which ends on Thursday (October 3). Here is all you need to know as the northern state goes to polls on October 5, the results of which will be announced on October 8.
What are the key issues?
Beyond community equations, Haryana is seeing most of the poll rhetoric centred around issues of unemployment, farm distress and corruption. National issues are also making some appearances; for instance, when Modi brings up the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and Rahul Gandhi talks about alleged cronyism.
The Congress has alleged rampant bribery in providing government jobs. The party has also claimed that not enough jobs were created, saying Haryana has the “highest levels of unemployment”. It has repeatedly brought up the 2020-21 farmers’ protest, listing the central government’s repeal of the three contentious farm laws as an admission of “anti-farmer” policies.
Campaign rhetoric of the INLD and the JJP has been along similar lines, though they have stressed that the Congress, particularly the Hooda father-son duo, does not have a better record.
The BJP has been insisting that its government was the keenest in Haryana when it comes to giving jobs on merit. The party has also listed central schemes targeted at farmers and distressed sections of society among its achievements and offerings.
Prominent in the BJP’s rhetoric are attacks on “dynastic politics”, be it the Gandhis at the Centre or the Hoodas in the state. In its attack on the internal fight in the state Congress unit, the saffron party has also deployed senior central leaders to buttress the allegation that Dalit leader Kumari Selja has been sidelined.
What is the party-wise situation in Haryana?
BJP
The BJP was once a junior partner of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana, not very different from its partnership with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. It was a part of the state government led by INLD patriarch Om Prakash Chautala.
The BJP decisively broke up with the INLD more than a decade ago. However, observers predicted it will be able to stand on its own in the state. But, the Modi juggernaut became the prime factor as the saffron party scripted back-to-back victories in the 2014 and 2019 assembly polls held only months after the general elections.
But, the decline in its graph was apparent as, in 2019, it fell just short of the majority and had to depend on the breakaway party of the Chautala clan – the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) led by Dushyant Chautala – to stay in power.
It got worse as, in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year, the BJP came down by half from its earlier clean sweep of 10/10 seats. Ominous signs had emerged also when Dushyant, the deputy chief minister, left the ruling alliance. The BJP then changed tack, and made Saini the CM.
The party faces anger, particularly from the farming communities – most prominently the Jats – with the 2020-21 farmers’ agitation being a major plot twist. It has, in the past, sought to consolidate the non-Jat votes while the Jat vote would get divided.
More complex social engineering may, thus, be a key to the BJP’s fate this time. Observers also place repeated paroles to Dera Sacha Sauda chief and rape convict Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh in that context.
Congress
The Congress has put all its weight behind long-time warhorse Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was CM for 10 years before the BJP’s decade began in 2014. The party is, however, saddled with long-running internal feuds.
Kumari Selja – a prominent Dalit leader, Gandhi family loyalist and former Union minister – has been quite open about her political ambitions. Another Gandhi loyalist, Randeep Singh Surjewala’s son Aditya Surjewala, has got the ticket from Kaithal.
But, if analysis of the ticket distribution is anything to go by, the high command is set in its plans to have Hooda, assisted by his son Deepender, lead the way. Selja has not even been given a ticket despite showing strong interest in moving to state-level politics, whereas Surjewala’s son is contesting.
The party is depending on Jat vote consolidation this time after the divide and decline of the Chautala clan. It has fielded wrestler Vinesh Phogat and is harping on the alleged injustices faced by the ‘Haryana ki beti’. When it comes to social engineering, it is also hoping that the Dalit communities choose it over multiple other options being presented to them.
The Chautalas
There are other players on the field, most prominently the divided Chautala clan that is split between the INLD and JJP.
Dushyant’s JJP, which was new last time but got 10 seats, had taken away a major chunk of the traditional INLD vote, making an emotional pitch that the younger lot had been wronged and thrown out by the older lot, particularly his uncle Abhay Chautala.
The JJP’s partnership with the BJP later gave it a seat on the power table, but also confused, even frustrated its supporters, who saw it as a betrayal of the original mandate. Dushyant has been facing tough questions, particularly from the farming communities, over his equation with the BJP.
Abhay Chautala, who was the lone INLD MLA last time and even resigned showing support for the farmers’ protest, sees this as a chance to revive his party. He has partnered with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to build a Jat-Dalit combination. Dushyant is trying the same formula, partnering with the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), led by Uttar Pradesh MP Chandrashekhar Azad.
Important candidates and seats
Ladwa, Nayab Singh Saini: He had contested from Karnal to enter the state legislative assembly after his predecessor, ML Khattar, vacated it and moved to national politics. In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP got over 47% of the vote in this assembly segment, which makes it a relatively safe seat for the incumbent and projected CM. The seat is presently held by the Congress.
Garhi Sampla-Kiloi, Bhupinder Singh Hooda: The top leader of the Congress is in the fray from what is considered his home constituency, where he is the sitting MLA. He had got nearly 66% of the vote last time.
Ambala Cantt, Anil Vij: Among the senior-most leaders in the Haryana BJP, Vij has won half a dozen times from this constituency. His claim to the CM’s chair this time has made headlines and has been seen as emblematic of the saffron party’s internal pulls and pressures.
Tosham, Shruti Choudhary: Granddaughter of former CM Bansi Lal, she is a former MP who recently joined the BJP from the Congress as her mother Kiran Choudhary switched sides over differences with the Hoodas. Kiran won the seat last time with nearly 60% of the votes.
Kaithal, Aditya Surjewala: This is being seen as a prestige battle for Congress leader Randeep Surjewala, father of Aditya Surjewala, who lost this seat by less than 1% vote last time. This is seen as the family stronghold, but the BJP has a formidable candidate in Leela Ram Gujjar, who won last time and is the sitting MLA.
Ellenabad & Rania, Abhay Chautala and son Arjun: The INLD leader is seeking yet another term as MLA from his stronghold, while his son Arjun Singh Chautala is making his debut from the neighbouring constituency of Rania. This means another member of the Chautala clan is in the mix.
Uchana Kalan & Dabwali, Dushyant Chautala and brother Digvijay: While former deputy CM Dushyant Chautala will hope to retain Uchana Kalan, his brother Digvijay is in a three-way fight in Dabwali, from where his father was an MLA of the INLD when the clan was united. Incumbent Congress MLA Amit Sihag also has a family connection with the Chautalas while the INLD has fielded Aditya Devi Lal, who suffixes the name of his grandfather — Chautala clan’s original patriarch and legendary farm leader Devi Lal — to his name.
Julana, Vinesh Phogat: The face of the wrestlers’ protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi last year, Olympian Vinesh Phogat entered politics and joined the Congress soon after her disqualification at the Paris Games. Julana is her in-laws’ home and, though the constituency is far from a Congress stronghold, her “tragic hero” image is key.
Sirsa, Gopal Kanda: The controversial businessman, whose Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) is in alliance with the INLD and BSP, is among the richer candidates and the sitting MLA in Sirsa – also home to the Dera Sacha Sauda. His alleged closeness to the BJP, which has not fielded a candidate here, has been a talking point. He is facing Congress Youth leader Gokul Setia, who is also a rich businessman and is seen as a Rahul Gandhi pick.
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