In 2014, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik broke the Narendra Modi wave in the state, winning 117 of the 147 assembly constituencies and 20 of the 21 Lok Sabha constituencies.
Of these 21 parliamentary constituencies, it had won three — Aska, Cuttack and Jajpur — by over three lakh votes, another three — Puri, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur — by over two lakh votes, and nine constituencies — Balasore, Berhampur, Bhadrak, Bhubaneswar, Balangir, Dhenkanal, Kandhamal, Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj — by over one lakh votes.
In 2014, BJD’s relative weakness, barring in Balangir, was seen in Western Odisha. Bargarh, Kalahandi, Sambalpur and Koraput, all districts in the western part of Odisha, were won by the BJD but by thin margins. In 2014, the BJP’s lone win came from Sundargarh. In a closely fought battle, BJP candidate Jual Oram defeated BJD’s Dilip Kumar Tirkey by a slim margin of 18,829 votes. Congress’s Hemanand Biswal was in the third position.
Five years later, in 2019, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi having completed his first term, the BJP saw a dramatic rise in its fortunes in Odisha, especially in the parliamentary elections. While the BJD won 12, the BJP won eight and the Congress got one seat. The margin of victory in the three constituencies where the BJD had won by over three lakh votes in 2014 — Aska, the chief minister’s home turf, Cuttack and Jajpur — came down to over two lakh to over one lakh votes.
The margin of victory in the three constituencies where the BJD had won by over two lakh votes in 2014 — barring Jagatsinghpur — also saw a drastic drop in the winning margin with Puri turning out to be a closely fought battle. BJD’s Pinaki Misra defeated BJP’s Sambit Patra in Puri by a narrow margin of 11,714 votes.
Of the nine constituencies that the BJD had won by a margin of over one lakh votes in 2014, it lost four to the BJP in 2019, won four by thin margins and could retain just one with a similar margin. Of Balasore, Berhampur, Bhadrak, Bhubaneswar, Balangir, Dhenkanal, Kandhamal, Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj in 2014, it lost four — Balasore, Bhubaneswar, Balangir and Mayurbhanj — to the BJP in 2019. Interestingly, the BJP won all these constituencies by thin margins.
In Balasore, BJP’s Pratap Sarangi defeated BJD’s Rabindra Jena by just over 12,000 votes. In Bhubaneswar, BJP’s Aparajita Sarangi defeated BJD’s Arun Patnaik by a little over 23,000 votes. Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo of the BJP defeated BJD’s Kalikesh Singh Deo by just over 19,000 votes in Balangir. Mayurbhanj was won by BJP’s Bishweswar Tudu by over 25,000 votes by defeating BJD’s Debashish Mamdi.
The BJD retained Bhadrak by over 28,000 votes, Dhenkanal by over 35,000 votes, Keonjhar by over 66,000 votes and Berhampur by over 94,000 votes. Of the nine constituencies that it had won by a margin of over a lakh votes, it could retain only one — Kandhamal — by a similar margin.
Take a look at the fate of those key constituencies in western Odisha where the ruling BJD had won by thin margins in 2014 — Bargarh, by a little over 11,000 votes; Kalahandi by over 55,000 votes; Sambalpur by over 30,000 votes; and Koraput by 19,000 votes. In 2019, BJD lost all these — three to the BJP and one to the Congress — again by thin margins.
In 2019, BJP’s Suresh Pujari won Bargarh by over 63,000 votes, while BJD’s Prasanna Acharya was the runner-up. In Sambalpur, BJP’s Nitesh Ganga Deb won by a little over 9,000 votes, while BJD’s Nalini Kanta Praddhan was the runner-up. Kalahandi was won by BJP’s Basant Kumar Panda by a little over 26,000 votes. BJD lost Koraput to Congress’s Saptagiri Ulka by a wafer-thin margin of a little over 3,000 votes.
In 2019, Jual Oram contesting on the BJP ticket won Sundergarh by a huge margin of 22,300 votes, which in 2014, he had won by a thin margin of 18,000 votes. BJD’s Sunita Biswal was a distant runner-up.
Instead of the one-sided fight in 2014, the 2024 parliamentary elections in Odisha are expected to be close and fiercely fought — Cuttack, Kendrapada, Balasore, Bhubaneswar, Puri, and Sambalpur. The 2024 elections are being framed as a Naveen Patnaik vs Narendra Modi battle, with questions about whether the Congress can recover any lost ground, especially after Rahul Gandhi’s padayatra.
Both the BJD and BJP have welcomed defectors from each other’s parties, fielded them from prestigious constituencies and tweaked strategy to ensure a win. The Congress is lagging behind in the perception battle though it may give a fight in some constituencies in western Odisha like Koraput and Kalahandi.
The star of the BJD — six-time winner Bhatruhari Mahtab from Cuttack — switched over to the BJP and will contest from Cuttack on a BJP ticket. BJD has fielded a political greenhorn, Santrupt Misra, former HR head of Aditya Birla group, to take on the veteran leader. Kendrapara winner, actor Anubhav Mohanty who had defeated Baijyant Panda in 2019 by a handsome margin, also switched over to the BJP. The BJD has now fielded former Congress MLA Anshuman Mohanty to take on Panda.
Lekhashree Samantsinghar, former BJP vice-president and spokesperson, switched over to the BJD and has been given a ticket from Balasore. She will now take on sitting MP and veteran BJP leader Pratap Sarangi. Bhubaneswar is also set to see a fierce fight with the BJD fielding Manmath Routray, the youngest son of six-time MLA and veteran Congressman Suresh Routray, to take on BJP’s sitting MP Aparajita Sarangee who had wrested the seat from the BJD by a narrow margin in 2019.
BJD has fielded former Mumbai Police commissioner Arup Patnaik to take on BJP’s spokesperson Sambit Patra from Puri. Patnaik had lost to Sarangee in 2019, while Patra had lost to BJD’s Pinaki Misra by a thin margin. The stage is set for another big battle in Sambalpur where BJP minister Dharmendra Pradhan will take on BJD’s organisation secretary and Jajpur MLA Pranab Prakash Das. With Naveen Patnaik leading from the front by contesting from the neighbouring assembly constituency of Kanabanji for the first time, the battle for Sambalpur and the other constituencies of western Odisha will be fiercely fought.
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