The voting percentage in the 2016 Assembly election to Tamil Nadu offers many insights. Since 1991, coalitions headed by the AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) and the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) had successively won a clear majority in the Assembly. The incumbent always lost. But in 2016, this did not happen.
Until then, both the leading parties formed coalitions, worked out seat arrangements and fought as a close group. But in 2016, J. Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK decided to go it alone, while the DMK settled on only one big partner, the Congress. Though the DMK wanted a deal with Vijayakanth’s DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam), it did not come through. In hindsight, it is clear that had the deal worked out, the DMK would have romped home with a huge margin in seats. But, that was not to be.
A group of six parties, a veritable alphabet soup, the DMDK, the VCK, the MDMK, the CPI, the CPM and the TMC, formed the third front called the MNK, or the Makkal Nala Koottani. S. Ramadoss’ Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) fought on its own across the state while the BJP led the fifth front. Tamil nationalist Seeman’s party, the NTK (Naam Tamilar Katchi), which never forms any coalitions, was the sixth.
In the end, the AIADMK (40.77 per cent) just edged past the DMK coalition (38.06 per cent) by a whisker, but ended up getting a clear majority of 135 seats to beat the anti-incumbency. The vote share of the next four coalitions were as follows:
Third Front – MNK collectively – 6.05 per cent
Fourth – PMK – 5.32 per cent
Fifth – BJP – 2.84 per cent
Sixth – NTK – 1.06 per cent
While the AIADMK and the DMK together captured nearly 80 per cent of the votes, the next four fronts together managed a little over 15 per cent. On their own, the others could not win a single seat, but as part of a coalition, they had the power to change the results considerably. That is why all but one–DMDK–decided to be part of the DMK or the AIADMK-led coalition.
Big players seal pacts
But, the seat-sharing discussions have remained acrimonious so far. The expectations of each of these minor parties were so high, it exasperated both the AIADMK and the DMK. The most valuable partner, the PMK, gave the least trouble to the AIADMK, settling for a moderate 23 seats. But all other discussions were anything but amicable, eating into the valuable campaign time.
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In 2016, the Congress got 41 seats from the DMK, as it was the only significant party in the coalition. This time around too, Congress wanted a similar number of seats. When denied, the president of Tamil Nadu Congress literally cried at an internal meeting over the way they were being mistreated by the DMK. They eventually settled for 25 seats. The VCK, the CPI, the CPM and the MDMK, all part of the third front MNK in 2016, joined the DMK this time and each one demanded double digit seats. The DMK offered them all six seats each, angering each one of them. Finally, they all settled for what was offered. One of them, the MDMK, will contest on DMK’s Rising Sun symbol, and if they win, will have to function as DMK legislators.
The BJP’s discussions with the AIADMK have not been publicized much, but one can guess it would have asked for more than the 20 it eventually got. The AIADMK gave another partner, the TMC (Tamil Maanila Congress), six seats, but the party would have to contest on its Two Leaves symbol.
Local party leaders in both the DMK and the AIADMK are unhappy with seat-sharing. Some have already threatened to stand as independents, hurting the chances of the coalition partners. While the parties’ central leadership has worked out the arithmetic, the success will depend a lot on the ground level chemistry between the workers of the coalition partners.
Smaller fronts, their problems
This time too, the DMDK has committed a big folly. In 2016, it demanded 41 seats from the DMK, as many as Congress. When denied, it walked into the third front, the MNK, and contested on 104 seats, losing deposit in all except one. This time, the DMDK demanded as many seats as were given to the PMK, which was dismissed outright by the AIADMK. Vijayakanth’s DMDK has shrunk considerably since 2016. In fact, it is a pale shadow of what it was a decade ago. At its height, it could command nearly 10 per cent of the votes across the state. In 2016, it could poll less than 2.5 per cent and now probably that number has shrunk to less than 1 per cent. As of now, the DMDK has still not figured what to do and may have to contest alone. It will struggle to find candidates for all the seats.
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That is the problem faced by the third and the fourth fronts as well. They do not know what to do with the seats they have in their hands. Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiyam (MNM) has been preparing for elections for quite a few months but even then it does not have candidates identified for all the 234 seats. It has attracted two tiny parties, the IJK (Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi) and the SMK (All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi)—basically one-man outfits—and has given each one 40 seats, attracting some lovely memes on social media! Now these parties, the IJK and the SMK, have the unenviable task of finding candidates for all those seats. The MNM was ready to give SDPI (Social Democratic Party of India) 18 seats, but the SDPI settled for just six seats from Dhinakaran’s AMMK (Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam). The AMMK is also trying to find some party or the other to offload the seats it has in its hands!
Head-to-head Contest
The AIADMK has announced its list of candidates and there are very few surprises. The 2016 list of candidates has almost been replicated. Only three ministers have been dropped. The DMK has also announced its candidates. Most smaller parties too have announced their candidates as well. At least 150 seats will witness a direct head-to-head fight between the AIADMK and the DMK and these seats will determine the winner. The two opinion polls that have come out so far point at a clear win for the DMK, but I do not see it that way.
DMK is ahead but only by a thin margin. The actual result will be determined by the high-voltage campaign in the next three weeks. Though DMK leaders have been claiming that there is a huge wave in their favour, on the ground, there appears to be no such thing, either in favour of the DMK or against the AIADMK. It will finally boil down to the mobilization of voters on the day of the polling.
There are two other factors left to be discussed. The election manifestos of the DMK and the AIADMK and the ‘M’ factor—money distributed by the two parties on the eve of elections to voters across the state. We will take a look at them in the next article.
This is the second in a series on Tamil Nadu elections by the author.
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