The latest developments in the Middle East have brought this region precariously close to an all-out war, particularly after Iran launched nearly 200 missiles on Tuesday, targeting various sites across Israel. The Iranian attack against Israel was not unexpected at all, as Iran had vowed that the Israeli strike, which killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah “would not go unanswered.”
Israeli PM Netanyahu has vowed that Iran will pay for its missile attacks, while Tehran has warned that any retaliation by Israel or its allies will be met with “vast destruction”. India has reasons to be extremely concerned about how the situation is unfolding in this nearby region and the consequences it may face in both the short and long term.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran’s missile attack was an act of “self-defence” and only targeted military and security sites used for attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. He explained that Iran launched the attack after exercising tremendous restraint for almost two months “to give space for a ceasefire in Gaza.” Araghchi also indicated that Iran’s action was “concluded” unless Israel “decides to invite further retaliation,” suggesting that Iran, on its part, did not wish to prolong the conflict.
As the rockets streaked through the sky, Israeli defence systems were swiftly activated to intercept the incoming threat. Netanyahu claimed that Iran’s strike on Israel failed to cause any damage, stating, “The attack was thwarted, thanks to Israel’s air defence system, the most advanced in the world,” while also expressing gratitude to the US for its support. Although a large number of missiles were successfully intercepted, Israeli officials admitted there were impacts in the central and southern regions.
The US, France, and the UK made it clear that they fully support Israel in its conflict with Iran. The Biden administration publicly offered unequivocal backing to Israel following Iran’s missile attack. The White House confirmed that President Biden had directed the US military to aid Israel’s defence against Iranian attacks and intercept missiles targeting the country. Pentagon press secretary Major General Patrick S. Ryder revealed that two US destroyers, the USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean, had deployed a dozen interceptors to target incoming Iranian ballistic missiles as part of Israel’s defence.
Many had hoped that the US would attempt to defuse the conflict. However, the US is unlikely to use its influence over Israel to de-escalate regional tensions or halt its supply of weapons to Israel.
French President Emmanuel Macron condemned Iran “in the strongest possible terms” for its “new attacks against Israel.” Macron stated that France is “committed to Israel’s security,” and French military resources in the Middle East have been mobilised to “counter the Iranian threat.”
Similarly, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer affirmed that his country “stands with Israel” and acknowledges its right to self-defence. Defence Secretary John Healey added that British forces had “this evening played their part in attempts to prevent further escalation,” without providing additional details. The BBC reported that UK fighter jets were involved in shooting down Iranian missiles, as they had been in April during a previous Iranian attack on Israel.
Some analysts are concerned that as the conflict escalates, the risk of Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure becomes particularly high, with Israel potentially creating conditions for this. Isaac Herzog, Israel’s president, described Iran as an “empire of evil” and stated that Israeli forces would “remove any threats that are existential to the state of Israel.” The worry is that Israel’s government may use the Iranian missile attacks to create an opportunity for a future strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
On the other hand, Iran is attempting to project strength but does not seem eager to provoke a wider retaliation. What it would do if pushed to the brink remains uncertain. It is believed that, unlike Israel, Iran does not possess nuclear weapons. However, fears persist that it might be nearing the capability to develop them.
The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security reported on January 8, 2024, that Iran would need only about a week to produce enough material for its first nuclear weapon, and it could have enough weapons-grade uranium for six weapons within a month. What has occurred since January remains a matter of speculation and analysis.
The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict could significantly impact India. Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis all maintain close ties with Iran, and Houthi attacks on ships have already caused trade disruptions in the Red Sea. India relies heavily on this route, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal, for its trade with Europe, the US, and West Africa. The Red Sea route may remain inaccessible to global companies for a much longer duration than previously anticipated. This will keep freight rates uncomfortably high, thereby impacting our imports and exports.
The conflict’s escalation could also jeopardise progress on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The IMEC plan, which was announced last year during the G20 meeting in New Delhi, comprises a shipping, road and rail corridor connecting India to Europe via the Gulf region, Jordan and Israel. It was conceptualised to reduce dependence on the Suez Canal and create a route that could be 40 per cent faster. It was also seen as a strategic response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, the eruption of war in West Asia could certainly pose obstacles to the development of this trade route.
Economists believe that due to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the Indian economy is unlikely to be significantly impacted by the escalating Middle East conflict in the short term. India’s foreign exchange reserves surged to $692 billion for the week ending 20th September, providing a buffer against immediate shocks. However, if the war is prolonged, the economy could face challenges. Oil prices would likely rise due to supply disruptions, and India’s exports and foreign investments could also suffer.
In May 2024, India signed a 10-year contract with Iran to develop and operate the Chabahar Port. Under the agreement, India will invest around $120 million in developing the port, with an additional $250 million in financing, bringing the total value of the contract to $370 million. However, Iran’s conflict with Israel will inevitably impede India’s efforts to develop the Chabahar Port.
Prime Minister Modi has consistently stated that this is not the era of war. India will likely urge both Israel and Iran to end hostilities and pursue dialogue and diplomacy. However, in the current climate, India’s calls are unlikely to be heeded. Of course, it is the responsibility of the United Nations Security Council to end this dangerous conflict and restore peace, but the veto power held by the P5 members continues to hinder the UNSC’s ability to take meaningful action.
The composition of the UNSC has failed to keep pace with a changing world, and India may find itself helpless as the Middle East conflict intensifies, causing widespread suffering and destruction.
The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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