In the recently held presidential and vice-presidential elections, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) voted for the Opposition candidates. However, AAP maintains a distance from all the Opposition parties. In such a situation with some seats in Gujarat, if AAP gets recognition as a national party, then its equation within the Opposition will change. Arvind Kejriwal will become irreplaceable as an Opposition leader.
The national ambitions of Kejriwal are well known, but for being a relatively new political party, AAP has not been recognised as a major player in the Opposition alliance, which is largely Congress-dominated. By becoming a national party, AAP wants to emerge as a force without which the Opposition bloc can never succeed.
The CBI probe against Delhi’s deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia over the alleged irregularities in the excise policy though has exposed that the Opposition parties are still sceptical about Kejriwal and his ambition.
Kejriwal And His Equations With Opposition Parties
Arvind Kejriwal emerged in Indian politics in a different way than other traditional leaders. He has maintained his position that the majority of political parties in India are corrupt. When AAP was formed from the India Against Corruption movement, Kejriwal and his associates hit out at several Opposition leaders like Samajwadi Party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav and others.
However, with time, Kejriwal has changed his stand on the Opposition political parties. For example, in 2017, AAP attended a meeting hosted by Sonia Gandhi to decide the presidential nominee.
Similarly, before the 2019 general elections, AAP joined hands with the other Opposition parties. Kejriwal even had a meeting with the Opposition parties in the presence of Congress MP Rahul Gandhi. Despite many discussions, AAP could not form an alliance with the Congress in Delhi during that election. But Kejriwal did attend several meetings, including a grand rally organised by Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee at the Brigade Parade Ground in Kolkata.
The equation between Kejriwal and the Congress was not good from the very first day because AAP’s first battle was against the Sheila Dikshit government in Delhi. With time, Kejriwal has developed a good equation with TMC chairperson Mamata Banerjee. But after she decided to fight the Goa assembly elections, where Kejriwal was hoping to get a good number of seats, the relationship suffered a setback.
Kejriwal understands that his key target will be the states where the fight is between the BJP and the Congress and the grand old party is not strong. Many other Opposition parties, like the TMC, are also eyeing such states. That is why AAP believes that becoming a national party will increase its weightage to bargain inside the Opposition alliance.
CBI Probe Against Sisodia And Opposition’s Scepticism
Last week, the CBI initiated a probe against AAP leader and Delhi’s deputy CM Manish Sisodia over alleged financial irregularities in the Delhi Excise Policy. The Congress was the first to demand the resignation of Sisodia. This shows that the Congress will never be comfortable going with AAP in the bigger Opposition alliance. The other Opposition parties are also divided. Mamata Banerjee did not make any public statement condemning the probe. Similarly, the DMK, TRS, NCP, and JMM have maintained a silence.
Some political parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal, PDP and Samajwadi Party have extended support to Sisodia. These are examples of a fragmented Opposition. This also proves that Kejriwal will face hurdles to place himself within the Opposition alliance in the future.
Kejriwal Does Not Want To Play To The Gallery
For several years, Kejriwal stayed silent against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The idea was that he will only take on the BJP when his power will increase. Delhi, being the capital of India, is not a full state and is majorly dependent on the central government. This is why he started taking on the BJP after the victory in Punjab.
The grand victory of Punjab has not only increased the strength of AAP in terms of ruling another state but also in Parliament. Currently, the party has 10 lawmakers in the Rajya Sabha. In comparison, the BJP has 91, the Congress 31, and TMC 13. Like AAP, the DMK and YSRCP have 10 members each in the Rajya Sabha. This means that in the House, AAP is now the third most important party in the Opposition camp after the Congress and TMC.
In Goa, AAP has two MLAs. If in Gujarat and in other states, the party gets some more seats, it will not only become a national party but also increase its number of Rajya Sabha members and become the second largest party after the Congress. The Trinamool Congress, which has 13 MPs, is currently restricted to West Bengal and it is unlikely that its strength of MPs will increase in the near future.
In the recently held monsoon session of Parliament, the Congress-led Opposition repeatedly reached out to AAP for its support on several issues like taking a stand against the use of central agencies by the Narendra Modi government to implicate rivals.
In the backdrop of these events, Kejriwal understands that AAP is becoming a crucial Opposition party and that, without him by 2024, the anti-BJP alliance will not be able to take on the current regime. This message was sent loud and clear to the Opposition alliance when, despite his absence from the meeting to select the Opposition candidate for president and vice president, he supported the choices. There is a significant difference between the stands taken by Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee. The latter abstained from the vice president’s poll, alleging that the Congress did not consult her, whereas Kejriwal’s message was distinct and mature.
Political And Strategic Difficulties For Kejriwal
The path towards becoming a national alternative to the BJP is not easy for Kejriwal. Recently, he launched a campaign called Make India No.1. Several AAP leaders have already conveyed that they want Kejriwal as the prime ministerial face in 2024. The party is all set to fight the Gujarat and Himachal assembly elections soon.
It is also important to understand that the voters in India vote in different ways in national elections and in assembly polls. For example, AAP, despite ruling Delhi, has never succeeded in the Lok Sabha elections here. The BJP holds all seven Lok Sabha seats in the national capital. Similarly, in Punjab, AAP does not have a single Lok Sabha seat. Moreover, recently, when the party went to the election for the Sangrur constituency, it lost on the home turf of chief minister Bhagwant Mann.
All of AAP’s free welfare models are state-centric. To fight a general election, Kejriwal will not only need larger ideas in sectors like India’s economy, external affairs, defence, and so on, but will also have to change his overdependence on freebies. Whether he will decide to go alone or join the Opposition with more bargaining power is a matter that remains to be seen.
The author is an independent journalist and columnist based in Kolkata and a former policy research fellow at the Delhi Assembly Research Centre. He tweets as @sayantan_gh. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
Read all the Latest Opinion News and Breaking News here
Comments
0 comment