Over the last couple of years, India has been following a revised tactic at the UNGA with the specific aim of countering Pakistani propaganda. India has been fielding its Foreign Minister instead of the head of government which is the Prime Minister to spell out our position at the UNGA. This is because if the Prime Minister were to speak, then alphabetically since I comes before P, the Indian Prime Minister would have to speak before his Pakistani counterpart which would not give him a chance to respond to Nawaz Sharif's diatribe. Instead India has been fielding External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, arguably the best speaker in this government after the Prime Minister to do all the talking. So as Sushma takes the podium at the UNGA for the second year running, at a time of tense bilateral ties between India and Pakistan, what should we expect from her speech later tonight. Here are five broad areas she will touch upon.
1. Terrorism. Obviously the Uri attack will form the backdrop for India’s reply at the UNGA. Much of Sushma’s speech is expected to focus not just on Uri but also on the series of attempts, both foiled and successful, at disturbing the peace in South Asia. There have been 17 such attempts in the last 3 months alone. Post Uri, there have been at least 3 infiltration attempts which have been thwarted. Sushma will try to strengthen the perception that India is a victim of terrorism that is emanating from across its borders. Not just India, but all the terrorism that afflicts South Asia, whether in Afghanistan or in Bangladesh is all coming from the same source, Pakistan.
2. No war-mongering. Given the state of play between New Delhi and Islamabad and given the mood on the street in India post-Uri, it is easy and tempting to fall into the trap of sounding the battle bugle. But as was clear from the Prime Minister's speech over the weekend in Kozhikode, India is not going to plunge South Asia into another war. Modi seems to have made the simple calculation that India has far more to lose if we were to go to war than our adversary Pakistan. Hence the line, 'we are ready for war. War against poverty, war against illiteracy and war against disease.' Sushma will cash in on that and portray that India is willing to play statesman but there has to be resolution to the terrorism issue.
3. Balochistan. In keeping with the Prime Minister's Independence day speech where he highlighted the massive human rights violations in Balochistan, Gilgit and POK, Sushma too will pursue this new strategy. India's attempt is to blunt any negative propaganda from the Pakistanis on Kashmir by showing them the mirror on Balochistan. That explains the rationale behind the decision to grant political asylum to Baloch leader Brahmdagh Bugti. So far no country has made a noise about interfering in Pakistan's internal affairs, so why not make hay while the sun shines?
4. Indo-Pak dialogue. Nawaz Sharif in his speech last week had said that India was imposing unnecessary pre-conditions for dialogue. Sushma is expected to reiterate her stand from last year. India doesn't need any four point proposal. Our only condition is to end terrorism, and the we'll talk. India is keen to show the international community that it is not being obstinate about not returning to the negotiating table. Big countries don't walk away from dialogue.
5. Kashmir. Obviously one wouldn't expect to see the Indian foreign minister acknowledge the failings of her government over the last 80 days which has seen Kashmir burning, but her attempt will be to show that much of the unrest in the Valley has been instigated by vested interests from the other side. Again the attempt would be to isolate Pakistan on the global stage for actively supporting violent terrorists like Burhan Wani and constantly keeping the pot boiling in Kashmir.
Hopefully after Sushma's speech, and now that we are not going to war any time soon, we can focus back on domestic politics. Gau raksha, anyone?
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