Third Wave Peak to Hit Delhi, Mumbai Next Week, Nation’s May Arrive in January-End: Sutra Model Lead
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The Covid-19 peak would hit India in January-end and the country could see four to eight lakh cases every day, IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal and the lead of government-backed Sutra Model that tracks and mathematically predicts the spread of the virus, has told CNN-News18. Agrawal said the picture, however, would be clearer in the next three to four days.
Both Mumbai and Delhi, which are already witnessing the third wave, will see the peak arriving in the middle of January. Delhi will witness 50,000 to 60,000 daily cases as compared to 30,000 in Mumbai during the peak, predicted Agrawal based on the Sutra Model.
Asked about the ebbing of the Covid-19 third wave, Agrawal replied: “The basic thumb rule for any pandemic is the sharper the rise, equally sharp is the fall. So, this time you will see a dramatic decrease. You can see the same phenomenon in South Africa as well.”
#COVID19 | What Sutra Model predicts? Professor @agrawalmanindra IIT Kanpur speaks exclusively to @shreyadhoundial & says, "Elections don't impact surge dramatically. It is just one of the factors for rising numbers." #OmicronVariant pic.twitter.com/fBZtIRppPa
? News18 (@CNNnews18) January 9, 2022
On the prediction for the fourth wave, the scientist said it was outside the purview of his domain. “The fourth wave, whenever it comes, will be because of a new mutant, which finds a way to escape the immunity given by the previous ones. One cannot mathematically predict this… Biologists, who study such pandemics, may have an answer.”
As the Election Commission bans rallies till January 15 in view of the Covid-19 pandemic situation, CNN-News18 asked if the spike in cases was directly linked with election rallies. Agrawal said, according to the model’s study of 16 states during the second wave, five of which went to polls last year, statistically, there was “very little” to differentiate the way the second wave spread in those states.
“Elections will not make a big difference in the way the wave is spreading. An election rally is one of the many things that cause the wave to spread quickly. If you remove that one thing, it won’t matter much. What is needed is not to focus on one thing but to have focus across the board.”
Meanwhile, the Maharashtra government has reversed its earlier decision to keep gyms, beauty salons and spas shut amid an ongoing Covid scare and instructed in its revised guidelines to allow these establishments to function at a 50% capacity.
Chief minister Arvind Kejriwal said there will be no lockdown in Delhi if people follow Covid protocols such as wearing masks and maintaining social distancing.
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