Not President's Rule But Firm Hand-Holding Towards the Talking Table May be Answer to Manipur’s Woes

But is the dismissal of the N Biren Singh’s government and imposition of President’s Rule the answer to the crisis, as his opponents say? Some say if President’s Rule had to be imposed, it should have happened 6-8 months ago.

For now, the best solution is to bring the warring sides of Meiteis and Kuki-Zomis on the talking table, led by an effort from the Centre with a clear term of reference and the possible involvement of women in these talks, considering that they have been the biggest victims of the violence. This also becomes crucial as short-term measures like buffer zones between both sides have outrun their utility.

However, to get these talks going, another major issue needs to be settled first.

Who Calls the Shots?

The big issue in Manipur right now is who will call the shots when it comes to handling the situation. The chief minister’s supporters want full power to be restored to him, including control over the Unified Command. This is after the Centre last year did not hand over the reins of Manipur to the Governor but did everything short of that to stem the tide of violence.

The Centre used Article 355 to take over the complete security of the state. Rajiv Singh, a Tripura cadre officer, was given intra-cadre transfer and made DGP of Manipur. Vineet Joshi was sent in as the Chief Secretary from central deputation. Kuldiep Singh, the former DG of CRPF and NIA, was appointed security advisor to the chief minister.

All three of them were outsiders, though Joshi is from the Manipur cadre. The trio managed to get some success — for months, lives were not lost in Manipur after the bloodbath in May-June 2023. Tension remained between the Kukis and Meiteis but schools reopened, some managed to go back home from camps and the Lok Sabha elections were conducted successfully. There was a feeling that things were improving.

However, as violence erupted again in September 2024, the sharpest knives of Imphal valley are out for Rajiv Singh and Kuldiep Singh. The student community has laid siege to Raj Bhawan, demanding the ouster of the duo. Stone-pelting began on Tuesday by protesters who were unhappy with what the Raj Bhawan gave them by way of assurance.

This makes the prospect of President’s Rule in Manipur even more complex. In President’s Rule, it is the Governor who de-facto rules via hand-picked officials. But Governor Laxman Prasad Acharya himself is new to the Manipur Raj Bhawan. He has met the chief minister twice amidst the latest round of violence. Given that the Centre’s hand-picked officials are being targeted even though they are working under the chief minister, a new bureaucratic team would find the task even more difficult if Biren Singh is asked to go.

Complicating matters further is the Meitei community’s trust deficit in Assam Rifles while the CM’s son-in-law seeks a recall of all paramilitary personnel. The Kukis, similarly, are suspicious of the Manipur Police. The protesters term them ‘Meitei Police’, a perception supported by the just-retired Assam Rifles DG too. The priority must be to bridge this trust deficit.

Talks the Only Way Ahead

BJP MLA Dinganglung Gangmei, a Naga leader, has been appointed by CM Singh to hold talks between the Meiteis and Kuki-Zomis but he too says the Centre must intervene in the talks. He points out that he has no clear terms of reference and the role of civil society groups on both sides has made it impossible for him to make any headway so far. The Centre has had success earlier with the Amit Shah-led MHA traversing difficult terrains in Tripura amongst 12 peace accords.

Manipur is a bigger challenge, nevertheless. A starting point of a solution towards peace in Manipur may be to get women and the elders on board, says Lt Gen (Rtd) PC Nair.

“Meira Paibis fought and won Manipur’s battles against drugs and HIV. Women in Manipur in all communities are stronger than anywhere in India,” he told CNN-News18. Women on both sides have suffered the most in this violence. If the Centre can rope them in, a turn towards peace in Manipur may begin.