Monsoon fails in June across India, hopes of revival in July & August

New Delhi: The monsoon has failed in the first month of its arrival - June which has sent shock waves across the country. The newly elected Narendra Modi government at the Centre will surely have a very tough time ahead if the monsoon fails to recover in the remaining three months - July, August and September.

India has recorded 42 per cent less rainfall in June. According to a private weather agency Skymate, India has seen this kind of shortage of rain 12 times in the last 113 years. It means, India has witnessed a huge deficit of rain once in every 10 years in the past.

The South-West Monsoon, which brings rain to most part of India, was very weak during June. Only Kerala, Tamil Nadu and South-interior Karnataka have received normal rainfall.

All other parts of India including Goa and Maharashtra, received very less rainfall in the first month of monsoon. The sowing across India has been severely affected by the shortage of rainfall.

Some hope

According to weather experts, the monsoon is likely to recover in the first week of July. A depression like situation over Arabian Sea is likely to result in the heavy rain across India in July.

The national capital Delhi and other states in the north-western part of India are likely to get rain from July 5. Odisha and Telangana states are also likely to receive heavy rain during the same period.

Gujarat, Rajasthan worst hit

Gujarat and Rajasthan have got just 20 per cent of the usual rain in June and the situation is getting worse. If the monsoon fails to recover in the next 15 days, it can lead to a mini-disaster in these two states.

According to Indian Meteorology Department (IMD), which is the premier weather agency of India, the country has seen 45 per cent less rainfall during June 1- June 18. Normally country gets 78.8 milimetre rain during this period. But, this time it has received just 43.3 milimetre rain.

Northwestern part of India has got just 25 milimetre rain and the Central part of India has received just 51.4 milimetre rainfall. In Karnataka, the rainfall during June is 110.49 milimetre as against annual average rainfall of 160.30 milimetre during the same period.

Shortage of rain in major areas of India

All India figure - 42 per cent shortage

Karnataka - 35 per cent shortage

Konkan and Goa - 56 per cent

Kerala - 24 per cent

Gujarat - 88 per cent

Rajasthan - 80 per cent

Impact of deficit monsoon

The shortage of rain is likely to lead to power shortage across India. Most of the hydro electric projects are facing suspension of power generation due to less rainfall. It will hit the projects depending on the rain fed rivers very hard.

States like Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Odisha, Chhattisgargh and Madhya Pradesh get more than 60 per cent of their power from hydel projects.

The immediate fallout of less rain would be steep hike in the prices of vegetables. Next harvest season is likely to face a shortage of food grains and other commercial crops and the prices may go up affecting the economy.

The Centre has already instructed all state governments to take necessary steps to avert a crisis, in case of failure of monsoon. However, the Centre is hoping that the situation may improve in the remaining two months and the shortage would be around 80 per cent or even less than that.

The IMD had warned in May that the rainfall would be below normal and the shortfall would be 7-10 per cent. But, the total failure of Monsoon in June is leading to fears that the shortage may go beyond that upsetting the whole economy.