New Delhi: Experts feel that 9442 on the lower side and 9700 on the upper side are the key levels to watch out for next week. On the move up the markets can have a very strong rally from 9,900 to 10,200.
Arvind Pruthi, Karvy Stock Broking
Markets should possibly hit the 10,000 mark by the end of this month
The markets will further strengthen from current levels and should possibly hit the 10,000 mark by the end of this month. Some kind of volatility, as witnessed on Friday, is not ruled out. It won't be a one sided run now either way.
Liquidity will continue to influence the markets next week
Liquidity will continue to influence the markets next week. Overseas investors are still lapping up the India story and will continue to find India an attractive destination for their capital. Despite making record profits for their overseas investors they are still not willing to book profits.
Markets are now in uncharted territory
The markets are now in uncharted territory and technical levels would have no sanctity now.
Rahul Mohindar, Viratechindia.com
Monday is likely to see a flat opening
9460, the top made last week, is a very crucial and strong technical support. On the move up, we see resistance to the Sensex at 9650-9660 levels next week. Though, the markets will open very flat on Monday.
Dharmen Mehta, Indistock Securities
The markets should open firm on Monday
Markets looks promising till Reliance goes ex on January 18. The markets should open firm on Monday and remain bullish through the next week.
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Reliance demerger, crude oil prices to influence markets next week
Reliance demerger and crude oil prices will be the two factors determining the course of the markets next week. Global markets and global sentiments before the Fed meeting will also play its part in deciding the course of the markets next week.
The last leg of the rally is always the most powerful
Investors should not buy Reliance at current rally. This is the last leg of the rally and investors, who have made decent returns should use ant move ups to exit and book profits. The long-term rally is not over but going ahead we will surely see some slowdown or a healthy correction. The last leg of the rally is always the most powerful.
Between 9,900 and 10,200 the markets might see a very fast run up
Between 9,900 and 10,200 the markets might see a very fast run up. But such strength should not carry investors away. It’s possible that the current momentum might take you to those levels. One must exit over valued stocks and enter areas where valuations haven’t run away.
Sumeet Rohra, Antique Stock Broking
The next resistance to the Sensex is at 9680-9700 levels
Markets on Friday have given a very good closing again. Markets this week has closed above last Friday’s closing of 9442. However, some amount of volatility and profit taking was seen intra-day today. The next resistance to the Sensex is at 9680-9700 levels.
The crucial level to watch out for would be 9700
If the Sensex fails to sustain above these levels then perhaps we could see a range bound movement from 9700 on the upper side to 9450 on the lower side. The crucial level to watch out for would be 9700 and above that the market momentum might take the Sensex to 9850-9900 levels. There are no clear resistance levels now as market is into uncharted territories.
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S Nagnath, DSP ML Fund
Valuations are fair
Fiscal year 07 earnings growth is expected at about 15 per cent or so and the market is also trading currently about 15 times PE. So in a sense it is at fair value. Valuations can over shoot depending on liquidity flows, which is what we are seeing. So there could be a moderation of trend in the months ahead before things begin to pick up perhaps towards the end of the year again.
The concern is not about internal but external shocks
The concern is not about internal but external shocks. Across the world, equity markets have done very well in the last few months. Big market like Japan was up almost close to 30 per cent in 2005 whereas Latin American markets like Mexico and Brazil were close to 40 per cent. There has been a synchronized move in equities in many markets across the world.
Factors like volatile currencies, dramatic spike in oil prices or an invent risk could impact on flows into emerging markets. If the economy growth in the US slows down, it will perhaps in turn have an impact on economy growth in China. In that context even if India grows at 7 per cent, it will be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, whenever there is a slow down in the bigger economies, it results in a negative impact on the equities.
Up trend in market to continue for next 5-10 years
This up trend will continue for the next 5-10 years. There is no doubt about it given the interest in terms of the number of FIIs getting registered and the flow of money. The flow of money is not geographically focused on any one region. It is coming pretty much from all around the world.
India and China are being seen as two of the growth engines in Asia. Asia in general is being seen as a growth engine for the world in the next couple of decades and beyond. There will be healthy intermediate corrections, which allow new investors to come in.
Nilesh Shah, Kotak AMC
Returns could be lot more front-ended this calendar year
In the last 3-4 months we have seen a gush of liquidity into the Indian markets probably with a new set of investors also coming in. It probably might sustain for another 4-6 weeks.
After that, clearly the Budget will have its set of implications. So we believe in this calendar year, returns could be lot more front-ended compared to the last two or three years, where the returns have been uniform in nature.
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