The battle in Bihar now moves to an area where Rashtriya Janata Dal is very strong and the Bharatiya Janata Party faces a tough time to win seats without the Janata Dal United's help. In the 2009 Lok Sabha it was a tough fight between the BJP-JDU combine, who were in alliance then, on one side and the RJD that had contested the elections on its own. Yet the RJD won two seats with Uma Shanker Singh bagging Maharajganj and RJD chief Lalu Prasad taking Saran.
Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur, Ujiarpur, Sheohar, Saran, Maharajganj and Hajipur are the seven seats where voting will take place on May 7. In 2009 the JDU had won Sitamarhi, Ujiyarpur, Hajipur, Muzaffarpur while RJD had emerged victorious in Maharajganj and Saran with BJP bagging Sheohar.
This area is one where RJD Lalu Prasad has invested a lot as his wife Rabri Devi is contesting from Saran. The other big names are Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan, who is once again trying his luck from Hajipur, and his opponent Ram Sunder Das, the oldest candidate at 93 years.
But the present situation is in stark contrast to what happened five years ago. Now with Congress and Nationalist Congress Party on his side, Lalu has posed the stiffest challenge to the BJP which allied with LJP and Upendra Kushwaha's Rahstriya Lok Samata Party. The JDU led by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has largely been relegated to the third place even its leaders are claiming that their voters are silent and the May 16 results will spring a big surprise.
A total of 1,05,79,997 voters including 56,57,808 males, 49,21,912 females and 277 others will decide the fate of 118 candidates out of which 10 are women. The largest constituency electorate wise is Maharajganj with 16,05,976 voters and the smallest is Ujiarpur with 13,89,618. A total of 9,804 polling stations have been set up. There will be 9,804 control units and 13,971 ballot units.
The seats going to polls:
Saran: Lalu Prasad had to sweat a lot to win this seat in 2009 against BJP's Rajiv Pratap Singh Rudy. In the end to emerged victorious by a margin of 51,815 votes. This time it is Rabri Devi who is trying to retain the seat for the RJD but faces a tough contest with Rudy once again in the fray.
Despite losing to Lalu twice in 2004 and 2009, Rudy is confident of turning the tables on the RJD chief this time. The BJP has been highlighting Lalu being jailed in the fodder scam, his poor development record, the election being for the Central Government to counter RJD's campaign.
Lalu has played the caste cards very intelligently. Having tied up with the Congress and NCP, Lalu has aggressively wooed Yadavs and Muslims, and also used the Rajput MPs of his party to split Rudy's hold over his community. Despite being a Rajput, Rudy is not sure of the wholehearted support of his own community after RJD MP Prabhunath Singh, trying to retain Maharajganj, addressed some impressive rallies for Rabri Devi.
Lalu has also wooed Bhumihars who are traditional rivals of Rajputs knowing fully that Rabri does not have the same pull among the voters as he has. In fact this seat will also test Lalu's MYR (Muslim-Yadav-Rajput) combination.
The BJP can take comfort from the fact even some young Yadavs are not blindly following their elders in supporting the RJD even as Muslims are veering around to support Rabri Devi despite the presence of JDU's Salim Pervez.
Marhowrah railway axle plant, set up by Lalu, is Saran's jewel, yet the RJD is banking more on caste arithmetic as not many jobs were created for locals as the Rs 1,500-crore factory is yet to start production.
Both Yadavs and Rajputs have almost the same numbers and the BJP hopes that Paswan's LJP will bring in the Dalits to make it easy for Rudy. In fact Rudy never took Rabri's name during the entire campaign instead addressing her as his bhabhi (sister-in-law).
The JDU, too, is eyeing the Dalit, EBC, MBC and Muslim votes. But Salim Pervez does not seem to be on a strong wicket especially after JDU candidate Kishanganj Akhtarul Iman withdrew calling Muslims to vote for the strongest candidate who could defeat the BJP. The other eight candidates will be lucky if they save their deposit.
Hajipur (SC): This is another high-voltage constituency from where JDU's 93-year-old sitting MP Ram Sundar Das is once again facing the old foe Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP. Congress's Sanjeev Prasad Tony, himself no pushover after the tie up with RJD, has made it an interesting battle. The other 12 candidates don't matter in this seat reserved for Scheduled Castes.
Hajipur has been a seat from which Paswan used to win without breaking into a sweat. But the loss to Das by 37,945 votes in 2009 saw Paswan going into political wilderness.
After five years of being a nonentity in Bihar politics, Paswan has bounced back strongly relying riding piggyback on BJP. But everything is not so smooth for Paswan, who has a penchant for switching sides to be always with the winner.
He left the BJP-led NDA over Gujarat riots and now has returned back to it after failing to clinch a deal with Lalu Prasad. This has alienated a lot of his supporters.
Yadavs and Muslims form a big chunk of votes and both communities have their own reasons for not voting for him which could prove to be very costly for the LJP leader. While Yadavs point out that Lalu sent Paswan to Rajya Sabha in 2010 and yet the later ditched the former, Muslims are livid with him for joining hands with the BJP.
Das, a leader who commands a lot of respect even from his rivals, is banking on Nitish Kumar's Mahadalit card which kept out Paswans and ensured that the LJP chief is now only seen as a Dusadh leader (a Dalit sub caste).
Tony is the biggest beneficiary as many Muslims and Yadavs are rooting for him. Yet he is not seen as strong enough to defeat Paswan and as a result lot of Muslims are likely to go with the JDU.
Muzaffarpur: There are 29 candidates in the fray from this seat which is also the name of the biggest town of and business hub of north Bihar. Despite being one of the most important cities of the state, Muzaffarpur is a picture of complete neglect.
There is an engineering and medical college in Muzaffarpur, yet the condition of both is very poor with dilapidated building and shortage of faculty. There have been vociferous demands for converting the Sri Krishna Medical College and Hospital into a super speciality hospital like All India Institute of Medical Sciences. Waterlogging and poor condition of roads are also big issues here. This is the land of delicious litchis and its farmers have been demanding better remuneration, storage facilities and agro-based industries.
But the three main candidates - Congress's Akhilesh Prasad Singh, BJP nominee Ajay Nishad, the son of sitting MP Captain (retired) Jainarain Prasad Nishad who won on JDU ticket in 2009 but was expelled and joined BJP just a few week ago, and JDU nominee Vijendra Chaudhary - are banking on their alliances and caste arithmetic to win the seat.
Despite being the son of a veteran leader, BJP's Ajay Nishad is considered to be relatively weak. The main contest is between Congress's Akhilesh Prasad Singh and JDU's Vijendra Chaudhary. The JDU nominee is highlighting the two-lane road to Sitamarhi and four-lane road to Hajipur as one of the big achievement of the Nitish Kumar government. The relatively better electricity situation is also one of his poll planks.
Dalits, Mahadalits, non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, MBCs are also being wooed aggressively by Chaudhary who has missed no chance to claim that Nitush Kumar has done a lot for them.
But the Congress backed by the RJD is pointing out the lack of industrialisation and job opportunities to hit back at his rivals. Yadavs, Muslims and a section of Rajputs are seen as the main vote bank of Akhilesh Prasad Singh.
On the other hand Nishad is totally dependent on BJP cadres to make a mark. His candidature has not gone down well with the BJP workers and the party's campaign has lacked the intensity that has been visible in other constituencies.
Maharajganj: This seat is witnessing a triangular battle between two strongmen and a leader whose life has been without controversies. While RJD sitting MP Prabhunath Singh, who won in a bypoll in 2013, is a man know for possessing both money and muscle power, his rival from the JDU Manoranjan Singh alias Dhumal Singh is no pushover when it comes to being on the wrong side of the law.
By contrast BJP leader Janardhan Singh Sigriwal is a man with a clean image and the party has used this to the hilt.
Both Prabhunath Singh and Manoranjan Singh, who is the JDU MLA from Ekma Assembly seat, are Rajputs while Sigriwal is a Bhumihar. In the 2009 elections Prabhunath Singh, then in JDU, had narrowly lost to RJD's Uma Shanker Singh. But in the 2013 bypoll following Uma Shanker Singh's death, he won on a RJD ticket against JDU leader PK Shahi, a Bhumihar, by a huge margin.
Rajputs and Bhumihars are traditional rivals in Bihar politics and Lalu has asked Muslims and Yadavs to vote for Prabhunath Singh in Maharajganj so that Rajputs back Rabri Devi in neighbouring Saran.
JDU is hoping that Manoranjan Singh will get the votes of his caste while Dalits, Mahdalits, EBCs, MBCs and Muslims will also back its candidate.
Ujiarpur: Even though there are 19 candidates but this is one of the few seats which is witnessing a four-cornered contest between JDU MP Ashwamedh Devi, RJD candidate Alok Kumar Mehta, BJP's Nityanand Rai and Communist Party of India Marxist leader Ramdeo Verma. In 2009 Ashwamedh Devi had defeated Alok Kumar Mehta after a tough fight by 25,312 votes.
But now Devi does not have the cushion of BJP votes. Her problems are compounded by the presence of two other strong candidates - Dharmendra Sahni of BSP and Phool Babu Singh of CPI-ML (Liberation) - both of whom are banking on the Dalits, EBCs and MBCs who have voted for the JDU till now. She has highlighted Nitish government's development work to win votes.
Yet the main fight appears to be between BJP candidate Nityanand Rai and RJD's Alok Kumar Mehta, who won from Samastipur in 2004.
BJP prime ministerial candidate has addressed a meeting at Sarairanjan for Nityanand Rai and he has claimed that he would trounce his rivals by a huge margin. But the party is beset with dissidents as BJP MLA from Mohiuddinnagar Rana Gangeshwar Singh, already suspended by the party, has been openly backing Nitish Kumar.
Mehta has confidence that his tenure as MP during which claims to have carried out many development work, Lalu's aggressive campaigning and consolidation of Yadav and Muslims in RJD's favour will see him through.
Sitamarhi: Here the main fight is between JDU MP Arjun Rai and RJD's Sitaram Yadav even though RLSP candidate Ram Kumar Sharma is trying to make it triangular with BJP and LJP's support.
This region is known as the place where Sita was found in an earthen pot when king Janak was ploughing a field. According to Hindu mythology Janak built a tank known as Janaki kund and there is a Janaki Mandir at the place when the pot containing Sita was found. Yet the city is hardly on the tourist map of India. Roads and electricity supply is very poor in the area and in monsoon, a large part of the area is flooded as there is no embankment at the confluence of Baghmati and Aghwara rivers. But none of these have become major election issues.
There are 19 candidates but Arjun Rai is facing a stiff challenge from former RJD MP Sitaram Yadav. While the Muslims and Yadavs are rooting for RJD but the non-Yadav, MBC and ECB votes are getting split between Rai and Sharma, who is a Koeri.
The RJD suffered a jolt a few days ago as two leaders Jai Nandan Yadav, a former Sursand MLA, and Laloo Prasad Yadav left the party. While Laloo is now with the JDU; Jai Nandan Yadav has not declared his choice even though he is also considered to be tilting towards Nitish Kumar.
Sheohar: There was high drama in this seat even before electioneering picked up when the previous JDU nominee Sabir Ali praised Narendra Modi and even joined the BJP before being unceremoniously dumped after a massive controversy over his alleged terror links.
The JDU then named Shahid Ali Khan who faces BJP sitting MP Rama Devi, RJD's Mohammad Anwarul Haque, former MP and Samajwadi Party's Lovely Anand, wife of convicted politician Anand Mohan Singh, and 12 other candidates.
There is a massive clamour for development as the area has very poor road and rail connectivity. A rail line to connect Sitamarhi and Motihari via Sheohar was commissioned in 2007 but is yet to be completed.
Anwarul Haque had won from the seat in 1999 and is once again confident of repeating the feat. JDU's Shahid Ali Khan is hoping that better electricity supply, opening of schools and health centre in the rural areas by the Nitish Kumar government will win the day for him.
Anand Mohan Singh had won in 1996 and 1998, and Lovely Anand is reminding of the work done by her husband. BJP MP Rama Devi is facing a lot of voter anger but hopes that the Modi wave will give her the edge.
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