Exit Polls Have Predicted BJP to Sweep Rajasthan. Will the Desert State Witness a Lotus Bloom Again?

As the Lok Sabha election ended on May 19, News18-IPSOS, an exit poll survey by Network 18 predicted that NDA may sweep maximum number seats in Rajasthan. News18-IPSOS exit poll predicts that NDA may win 22-23 seats out of total 25 seats while Congress may win 2-3 seats.

According to exit poll ,NDA’s probable vote share may be 60 per cent which is 5 per cent more than 2014. While Congress may get 35 per cent vote share with an increase of 6 per cent from 2014. Others may get 5 per cent vote share with an increase of 16 per cent than previous in the state. Earlier in 2014 under Modi wave, BJP had swept all 25 seats with 55.6 per cent vote share.

Furthermore, among popular faces in the fray, exit poll suggests that incumbent MP Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is likely to come back on BJP ticket again from Jodhpur. Besides, BJP’s sitting MLA Kailash Choudhary and incumbent MP Rana Dushyant Singh may also win from Barmer and Jhalawar-Baran constituencies, respectively. Rajasthan went on polls in phase fourth and fifth where a face-to-face battle was between the Congress and the BJP.

The ruling BJP’s battle was for prestige of retaining all seats it swept over the last time. However Congress was hopeful considering its victory in the December 2018 assembly elections. Though it is important to note that BJP’s defeat in the desert state in the recent assembly polls was a result of the growing resentment and the wave of anti-incumbency against former chief minister Vasundhara Raje, and not against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However the exit polls suggested opposite to the trends regarding the alternate results of the election.

The trends over the years suggest that electoral fortunes in Rajasthan turn out to be lopsided, that is, if one party gets majority in a state or general elections, the results for the next election gets reversed. For example, in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won the largest number of seats (21), but could only win four in the next general elections in 2009 as against the grand old party, which registered a victory by winning 20 seats.

These fortunes were turned once again in 2014, when the saffron party came back with full force and swept all 25 seats with an impressive 55.6 per cent vote share in a drubbing to the Congress which, despite getting 30.7 per cent vote share, failed to open its account.

The Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) was a new entrant in this election. BTP won two state assembly constituencies — Sagwara and Chorasi in the southern region of the state that is originally considered a BJP stronghold.

However, no exit poll has given any seats to the BTP.​