New Delhi: Nitish Kumar's reign as Bihar Chief Minister will continue as the Janata Dal United-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance is going to win the Assembly elections easily, according to the CNN-IBN-Axis My India pre-poll survey. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance will come second and the expected seat gap would be wide, reveals the survey, which is the largest pre-poll exercise of its kind.
The JDU-RJD-Congress alliance is projected to get 129-145 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. The halfway mark is 122 seats. The NDA which apart from the BJP also has Lok Janshakti Party, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) will bag just 87-103 seats. The others like Samajawadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Nationalist Congress Party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) etc likely to be routed. They may win just 8-14 seats.
If the pre-poll survey findings come true, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led alliance will suffer a massive body blow at the hustings because he himself is leading BJP’s campaign across Bihar like he did in Delhi Assembly polls.
Seat breakup
According to CNN-IBN-Axis survey, Nitish Kumar led JDU is likely to get 64-74 seats out of the 100 it is contesting. It’s almost 70% strike rate would be impressive, if the findings come true on the counting day. Lalu Prasad's RJD is expected to get 46-50 seats out of 100 seats, it is contesting. The biggest surprise is the Congress, which is expected to win 19-21 seats, out of 40 seats it is contesting.
The BJP is likely to get 77-87 seats out of 160 seats it is contesting. The LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan is projected to get just 1-3 seats and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP 2-4. The former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi led HAM may get 7-9 seats.
The 17 seats which are witnessing a very tough fight have been distributed to overall alliance tally range.
Vote percentage
JDU-RJD-Congress alliance is expected to garner a huge 46% votes as against just 38% vote share for the BJP-led NDA. JDU alone is expected to get 26% of votes, RJD 15% votes and the Congress 5% votes.
The BJP alone is expected to get 29% of votes, the LJP just 4% votes, HAM 3% and the RLSP 2% of the votes polled.
The third players SP, BSP and NCP are likely to get 1% votes each. The others may get 13% votes.
Vote share based on caste and religious groups
The JDU–RJD–Congress alliance is expected to get 72% Muslim votes, 67% Yadav votes, 53% Kurmi/Koeri votes, 31% OBC & Others, 42% SC/ST and 14% upper caste votes. The NDA is expected to get 10% Muslim votes, 21% Yadavs, 36% Kurmi/Koeri, 53% OBC&Others, 38% SC/ST and 73% upper caste votes. The Others are expected to get 18% Muslim, 12% Yadavs, 11% Kurmi/Koeri, 16% OBC&Others, 20% SC/ST and 13% upper caste votes.
Vote share based on income groups
The BJP alliance is likely to get 36% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 38% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs 10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 40% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs 20,000 per month.
The JDU alliance is likely to get 49% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 48% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 41% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
The Others are likely to get 15% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs.10,000 per month. They are expected to get 14% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and the others are expected to get 19% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
Vote share based on age groups
A total of 40% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the BJP led alliance, 39% in the age group of 26-35 years, 38% in the age group of 36-50 years and 35% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the BJP led alliance.
On the other hand 46% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the JDU led alliance, 46% in the age group of 26-35 years, 46% in the age group of 36-50 years and 45% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the Mahagathbandhan. It shows that across all age groups, the JDU led alliance is leading.
Also 14% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the others, 15% in the age group of 26-35 years, 16% in the age group of 36-50 years and 20% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour them.
Nitish Kumar most popular choice for CM
Among the respondents 43% voters have chosen chief minister Nitish Kumar as their choice for the post of chief minister. BJP leader and former Deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi has got 33% approval ratings, former chief minister Lalu Prasad has got a mere 6%, former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi 4%, Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan 3%, others 6% and 5% have no opinion.
Main issues
A total of 38% respondents have replied that development is the biggest issue in this election. 13% each have responded that inflation, electricity, road & water are the main issues. 10% have replied that education is the main issue. 8% have replied that employment opportunities, 6% reforms, 3% crime, corruption 4% and agriculture 2%, hospital and health services 2% and just 1% replied that sanitation is the main issue.
On what basis they vote
To a question on basis what basis do you vote, 40% of the respondents have replied that performance of the state government is the basis, 36% have replied that performance of the Central government decides their votes, 12% have replied that performance of the local MLAs influence their decision. Another 12% have replied that none of the above.
Nitish model over Modi model
52% of the voters have replied that they feel that Nitish Kumar model is better than Narendra Modi model. 48% respondents have voted for Modi model.
Nitish meets expectations
45% respondents have replied that Nitish Kumar government has worked as per their expectations. 17% have felt that it has surpassed their expectations and 38% feel that it is less than their expectations.
Chirag Paswan the Most Popular Young Leader
The LJP MP and son of Ram Vilas Paswan has got a huge 33% approval ratings as the most popular young leader in Bihar. He is followed by Lalu Yadav’s son Tejasvi Yadav with 22% approval ratings. Lalu Yadav’s daughter Misa Bharti Yadav has got 5%, Rahul Gandhi has got 18%, Shahnawaz Hussain has got 19% and Pappu Yadav has got 3% approval ratings.
No Impact of Owaisi’s MIM
According to the survey Hyderabad MP and MIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi’s entry is making no difference to anybody in Bihar. 52% respondents say it will have no impact. Just 6% say it will have some impact and 42% say they can’t predict.
The survey was carried out between September 23 and October 4, 2015 and was conducted in all the 243 constituencies in 38 districts of the state and the number of respondents was over 24,000. The sample has 87% people from rural areas and 13% from urban centres.
Caste wise distribution of respondents was: Yadavs 14%, Muslims 17%, Kurmi/Koeri 7%, OBC/others 33%, SC/ST 18% and upper castes 11%.
The age groups of respondents is as follows: 18-35 - 50%, 36-50 - 32%, 50 & above 18%.
What other surveys are saying
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