The US heads into the presidential election year beset with grave concerns. These include the state of the economy (even though certain numbers are positive), political polarisation, race relations, national security, cyber espionage, illegal immigration, gun control and reproductive rights. Yet arguably, an even bigger concern, at least for a sizeable majority of the population, is that the nation’s democratic framework itself was at risk under Trump 2.0.
The concerns are not unfounded. Trump continues to maintain, without any justification, that the 2020 election was stolen from him by radical-left Democrats and the fake news media. Nobody can forget that on January 6, 2021, he effectively incited his agitated supporters, some armed, to storm Capitol Hill (Parliament) and make themselves heard. “We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore,” he told the charged-up crowd. The scenes that unfolded shook the nation and astounded the world. Former Vice President Mike Pence and a number of congressional leaders escaped bodily harm by sheer providence.
Far from being contrite, Trump has been brazen about all his acts of omission and commission that include attempted insurrection, tax evasion, sexual assaults, defamation, unlawful possession of confidential documents and misuse of office. He is presently weighed down by some 91 criminal indictments, which would have by now seen a lesser mortal convicted, humbled and behind bars. But not Trump. Nothing seems to pierce his Teflon exterior.
He has the uncanny ability to deflect any and every accusation by playing the victim and berating the establishment for unjustly targeting him. In fact, he has managed to consolidate if not expand his following among the Republican voters who seem to almost have a Messianic belief in him. They brush aside all evidence of his culpability and absorb whatever he doles out regardless of its veracity. Their faith in Trump is surreal and their rabid intolerance of a contrarian viewpoint – scary. The political divide in the country has become so acute that families have been torn asunder and friends have turned foes. There is no room whatsoever for ‘agreeing to disagree’. The prevailing mood is very American – “If you are not with me, you’re against me.” A moderate Republican leader is becoming an endangered species, rapidly heading towards extinction.
‘The Trump charisma’ is difficult to decipher even after close to a decade that he has been in active politics. He has managed to tap into the fears, angst and aspirations of his voter base — predominantly middle-income, non-college and older white men — that feel dispossessed, short-changed and angry with politicians, governance, immigrants and big business. It is ironical that he, a multi-billionaire and a beneficiary of precisely the system that he rails against, has forged such a bond with the said segment of the populace.
His second term in office promises to be even more divisive and disruptive. He has pledged to “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country.” He wants to be a dictator ‘for one day’ to “close the border, and to drill, drill, drill.” He’s referring to stemming the flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico and tapping much more oil and gas even though the nation is an energy exporter. Biden has publicly said that Trump’s return would see “revenge and retribution” against his opponents.
Even more worrisome is his quest for unbridled powers without any checks or balances. His lawyers have averred in the federal court that the US president was absolutely immune from prosecution for any action while in office unless impeached by the Senate. Reacting to the outlandish plea, the judge could not help but observe, “You’re saying a president could sell pardons, could sell military secrets, could order SEAL Team Six to assassinate a political rival.” Trump is trying to buy time by delaying court proceedings, in the hope of pardoning himself retrospectively once he is back in office.
Yet, even though he remains the front-runner, his judicial woes are mounting. The states of Colorado and Maine have disqualified him from their primary ballot for attempting an insurrection against the nation which is a crime under the 14th amendment of the Constitution. However, there is ambiguity about the definition of ‘insurrection’ and whether it applies to the president of the country. The federal Supreme Court (six of the nine justices are Republican appointees including three by Trump) has agreed to hear an appeal against the decision starting on February 8. Many experts believe that they would strike down the disqualification. A speedy judgement is expected.
The return of Trump to the White House would have serious ramifications both domestic and global. The country is likely to turn more inwards under his MAGA (Make America Great Again) slogan. Immigration and trade barriers could go up. The US could again distance itself from efforts to tackle climate change. Its stance on NATO, the Ukraine conflict and the Middle East for example could see a reversal.
Notwithstanding the good equation between PM Modi and Trump, his return may not necessarily be welcome news for India. Remember how he, mercurial as ever, sought to mediate between India and Pakistan just a day after the highly successful ‘Howdy Modi’ event in Houston where Trump was felicitated, in 2019.
So what is the likely outcome of the second Biden-Trump bout?
At 81, Biden is the oldest presidential contender in American history. He is seen as physically feeble and forgetful. He is faring poorly in opinion polls with a less than 35 per cent favourable rating. According to political pundits, no sitting president with an approval rating in the 30s has ever secured a second term. A different democratic nominee could be a game-changer.
If elections were to be held today, Trump is expected to romp home. He has winds in his sails and money in his war chest. American elections are frightfully expensive with a serious contender having to raise upwards of one billion dollars.
Trump has just won the primaries in Iowa, besting his party opponents by an unprecedented margin of 30 per cent. It cannot be overlooked though that due to severe winter conditions, just 14 per cent of the registered republican voters, overwhelmingly Trump fans, showed up. Also, his candidature would become untenable if adjudged guilty in a criminal case, which is possible even if not probable. Statistically, it is noteworthy that since 1776, only one ex-President, Grover Cleveland, could manage a comeback.
Such is the unenviable environment that the world’s oldest democracy finds itself in. That said, the US has a remarkable ability of overcoming the odds and could very well do so again this time around.
The author is Former Envoy to South Korea and Canada and Official Spokesperson to the Ministry of External Affairs. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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