Saudi Arabia has reportedly suspended talks on normalising ties with Israel amid the escalating conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The normalisation talks, brokered by the United States, was one of the ambitious projects of President Joe Biden to normalise the Middle East and explore trade in the subcontinent.
But the large-scale attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 sparked a retaliatory bombing by Israel that has so far killed over 5,000 Palestinians and destabilised Israel’s growing relations with Saudi.
US President Joe Biden recently said the goal of Hamas’s attack was to prevent a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. “I was about to sit down with the Saudis… the Saudis wanted to recognise Israel,” he said.
De-escalation to Escalation
The Arab countries hoped this would be a year of de-escalation in the Middle East. They wanted calm to focus on ambitious plans to diversify their economies.
But now, the subcontinent’s oldest conflict has roared back to life.
Qatar, which has supported Hamas, hosts an office of the Palestinian group which doubles as the main residence of its self-exiled leader Ismail Haniyeh. The wealthy Gulf monarchy has acted as a communications channel with Hamas and is playing a key role in negotiations to release the hostages, with four freed so far.
Saudi officials announced during a visit to Riyadh by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the country had suspended talks with Israel on normalization of relations. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had spoken of progress with Israel but also insisted on movement on the Palestinian cause.
Meanwhile, other groups based in Arab countries including the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon have also expressed support with Hamas. Iran also has long supported Hamas as the group, like Iran, is committed to the destruction of Israel.
Shifting Alliances
UAE has been one of the first Gulf countries to recognise Israel and established full diplomatic relations. After the conflict started earlier this month, the country sympathised with Israel and made condolence calls to Israel.
However, after the explosion at Gaza’s Ahli Arab hospital last week that killed hundreds of Palestinians, UAE joined several countries in condemning Israel despite Tel Aviv denying that it targeted the facility.
Who Will Saudi Support?
Saudi Arabia has laid out conditions for normalisation, including security guarantees from Washington and help in developing a civilian nuclear programme. In an interview with Fox News last month, Prince Mohammed said “every day we get closer” to a deal, though he also insisted the Palestinian issue was “very important” for Riyadh. “We need to solve that part. We need to ease the life of the Palestinians,” he said.
According to a report in Reuters, there are a range of factors which Saudi must consider amid the escalating war: its rivalry with Iran, its role in the global oil market, overseas investment and the views of its 32 million citizens.
How Saudi responds to the conflict will have big implications for his drive to modernise the Gulf’s largest economy and for the world as a whole.
There can be three conclusions drawn about Saudi Arabia’s intentions. First, it wants to undercut Hamas and the Palestinian cause. Second, it wants to avoid a broader confrontation with Iran. The Saudis are nervous that a regional war could lead to Iranian-sponsored attacks on the kingdom, like the 2019 attack that hit its oil production, according to The Economist.
Lastly, Saudi is not completely closing the normalisation talks with Israel. In exchange for Saudis recognising Israel, the kingdom would get a defence pact with the US in return. However, the normalisation talks look a distant reality with a likely Israeli ground offensive in coming days.
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