Severely impacted by the El Niño phenomenon, August is set to make record for being the driest August since 1901. The month is anticipated to register a substantial rainfall shortfall of more than 33%. This alarming deficit has emerged despite around 20 days of the monsoon season remaining in a state of suspension.
This situation has elevated concerns about the possibility of the entire monsoon season (June to September) concluding with a significant dearth in rainfall. A Times of India report mentioned that With just two days left in the month, the cumulative rainfall across the country for August has reached 160.3mm till Tuesday. In contrast, the historical average for the same period stands at 241mm, resulting in a notable 33% deviation from the norm.
The lowest-ever August precipitation on record occurred in 2005, registering a meager 191.2mm of rainfall, which was 25% below the expected average. Given the ongoing interruption in the monsoon cycle, it appears highly unlikely that the total rainfall for this month will surpass 170-175mm. This would mark the first instance of a 30% or more rainfall deficit being documented in August.
Persistent feeble monsoon conditions over the span of a month have pushed the countrywide rainfall shortfall for the season to 9% as of Tuesday. This is perilously close to the threshold for a deficient monsoon, often termed a drought year, which entails a shortfall of over 10% within the June-September timeframe.
The performance of the monsoon in September will now be taken on paramount significance, with weather models offering some hope of increased rainfall after a few days, particularly in certain regions.
“We expect a revival from September 2 onwards, when a cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over north Bay of Bengal. This could intensify into a low-pressure system and bring rain in parts of east, central and south India,” IMD Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, was quoted as saying to Times of India.
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