LS polls: Varanasi blockbuster the big show, BSP may surprise in UP

Falafor

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posted on 10 years ago — updated on 1 second ago

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Fittingly the biggest blockbuster of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is in the final phase of voting on May 12. While the long-drawn Lok Sabha election has seen several high-profile contests, none has managed to grab the attention as the temple town of Varanasi where Bharatiya Janata Party prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi faces Delhi's giant killer Arvind Kejriwal, Congress's Ajay Rai and 74 others.

Uttar Pradesh has been central to Modi's game plan to capture power in Delhi and his candidature from Varanasi was a well thought out strategy to help the BJP to regain lost ground in the state and also influence voters in Bihar.

Out of the 18 seats going to polls on May 12 in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP had won Gorakhpur, Bansgaon (SC), Azamgarh and Varanasi while Congress bagged Domariyaganj, Maharajganj and Kushi Nagar. But the regional parties - Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party - won the remaining 11 seats.

While Deoria, Lalganj (SC), Ghosi, Salempur and Jaunpur were bagged by the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi emerged at the top in Ballia, Machhlishahr (SC), Ghazipur, Chandauli, Mirzapur and Robertsganj (SC). Mulayam's party won the maximum number of seats but Mayawati's party came at second spot in 12 seats except Domariyaganj where it came third.

Even as a high-pitched campaigning and massive road shows have been organised in Varanasi, an equally no-holds barred sparring match has taken place in the 17 other seats. Apart from his traditional Mainpuri, Mulayam is also contesting from Azamgarh to try and counter the hysteria generated by Modi.

But Mulayam is in a tough four-cornered contest against his former aide Ramakant Yadav fighting on a BJP ticket, BSP candidate Shah Alam alias Guddu Jamali and Rastriya Ulema Council Chief Aamir Rashadi Madana. The last two are expected to split the Muslim vote which will help the BJP candidate. A local journalist claimed that the Samajwadi Party is in the contest only because of Mulayam.

On the other BSP has a silent vote bank of Dalits and Muslims who are never part of any TV show discussion but they go out in large numbers to cast their votes. This stealth aspect of the BSP has made the party a huge success in Uttar Pradesh and BJP leaders concede their main challenge is Mayawati. The poor governance of the Samajwadi Party government of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav coupled with a spate of communal riots in the state have helped not only the BJP but also the BSP.

Keeping in tune with BSP's politics which is always away from the arc lights, Maywati did not spend too much energy on Varanasi and instead concentrated on other 17 seats particularly Chandauli, Jaunpur, Mirzapur and Macchlishahr which border Varanasi.

While the BJP has put all its efforts in ensuring Modi's visibility in all the seats, Mayawati's cadre has been busy wooing those disgruntled by Mulayam's party. Confident that the almost 20 per cent Dalits are solidly behind her, Mayawati has gone all out to get the support of Muslims, who too, are 20 per cent of the electorate, while also eyeing a section of the upper castes and OBCs by claiming that law and order and administration was much better under her rule. She is also banking on Muslims voting tactically to stop BJP's march.

The BJP, too, has played Modi's extremely backward caste origin very aggressively with an eye on getting a large section of the OBC and Dalit votes. Confident that the upper castes will vote for its candidates, the BJP has pursued the agenda of roping in smaller caste groups by aligning with Apna Dal, a party of Kurmis, and giving it two seats - Pratapgarh and Mirzapur. While voting in Pratapgarh took place on May 7, Mirzapur voters will exercise their franchise in the last phase.

The Congress is in disarray in most of the seats and even Ratanjit Pratap Narain Singh is finding it very tough in Khusi Nagar despite being a Union minister in the UPA 2 government. A total of 328 candidates are in the fray including 14 women and their fate will be decided by 3,16,80,539 voters.

Seats going to polls and 2009 results (parties in order of their position):

Domariyaganj - Congress, BJP, BSP

Maharajganj - Congress, BSP, BJP

Gorakhpur -BJP, BSP, SP

Kushi Nagar - Congress, BSP, BJP

Deoria - BSP, BJP, SP

Bansgaon - BJP, BSP, SP

Lalganj - BSP, BJP, SP

Azamgarh - BJP, BSP, SP

Ghosi - BSP, SP, Congress

Salempur - BSP, Congress, SP

Ballia - SP, BSP, BJP