The volumes may not pick up today; the prices may stay dull. So, we are in for another rangebound day today. There's nothing in markets for the bears or bulls.
Our markets:
It was very quite day yesterday and this morning all the cues from global markets are very quite as well, so we dread another excruciatingly boring session out here. It appears that volumes will not pick up today and prices may be quite range bound as well, though they appeared to be a bit on the greener side yesterday and there was nothing in yesterday’s trade, to take away at the end of it all. Today we resign ourselves to another range bound quite, low volume and perhaps grinding kind of a session.
Will the week be extremely tight, extremely range bound?
Yes bang in the middle of range so I suspect there is nothing in it for the bulls or the bears and conviction is anyway low on both sides, so I doubt whether people will stick their necks out in this kind of a flat global scenario and trade.
Asian Indices
Straits Times flat with a bit of a red tick, Korea flat with a bit of an uptick, Thailand flat, Nikkei down a 0.25% and the rest of the markets are off.
It has been a difficult market; do you have any takeaways from though?
It is, nothing is happening right now. We keep talking about every day 4,700-4,800, the broad point is we do all this because we are sitting in the midst of the market everyday but actually nothing is happening and we need to just step back and ask yourself a bigger question on whether this is that dreaded time wise correction which has started. We will not understand it till three months pass and we keep doing our 4,700’s and 4,900’s but the market may just have started a process of time wise correction, which it has not over the last many corrections.
It has always been fall very quickly and bounce back double quickly. So we have not seen this kind of a thing what is causing all of us a little bit of unease that the market is not going up, not breaking down. It is not giving us a significant move and we have got used to four years of moving like a rocket in either direction.
So maybe this is the way of things if you just cast your mind back 5-6 years, we had markets like these and that was a bear market but it was pretty much like this where prices fell then they did not recover very substantially and months passed and nothing happened to stock prices.
I was just discussing yesterday with somebody who came in who have memories of those times and we were discussing the Hero Honda stock. Months passed everybody came and spoke about how much value there was in Hero Honda and that stock probably moved Rs 10 in a year or something like that. It just was complete comatose I doubt whether we will get there but I fear that we are getting into that kind of a market phase where not too much will happen we will shout a lot but the market will just to and fro in a very small range and that will test out the patience of traders and investors who have got used to very smart returns on the way up and on the way down going long and short over the last four years.
This is a painful and difficult phase for the market and it may just remind people that being in the market is not just about making quick gains on the way up and the way down sometimes it just marks time and make it extremely painful for you to make money.
Will the nervous tick be the inflation numbers today?
Yes, people having being stung last week are very careful now and today’s poll is suggesting 6.8% but I don’t think economist know what is going on with the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) figure. The amount by which most polls were off the mark last time around, now that they have seen 6.68%, it’s like Infosys guidance and IT analysts. They use and predict something which is off and Infosys tells you I am going to do this and then add or subtract 5% from that and give you their great excel sheet for the year.
People have just seen 6.7% and they have woken up and got into huddle and they have said this time it would be 6.7% to 6.9%, it could be 7% plus, it could be sub 6%, nobody knows what’s going on. I suspect there might be a bit of surprise in the inflation numbers and hopefully it will be sub 6.5% and we will all feel happy at the surprise and not 7%.
It would be the key number to watch in the afternoon. It is the central thing which is worrying the market now and to that extent, it would be the biggest trigger today in the afternoon.
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